542
FXUS62 KMHX 171512
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG HAS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
ENC WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER HIGH TEMPS MAY BE ON THE ORDER
OF ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
2) LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS UNTIL THIS EVENING
AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST COOLER, MAINLY
IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...LARGE POWERFUL BACKSWELL FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO IMPACT THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD 6-9
FT SWELL AT ABOUT 10-12 SEC PERIODS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND AS A
RESULT HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME PERIOD OF THIS LARGE AND POWERFUL
SWELL HANGING AROUND OUR COASTAL WATERS. BIGGEST CHANGE AS A
RESULT OF THIS IS THAT WE NOW HAVE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES IN THE TYPICAL MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWELL FINALLY SUBSIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PATCHY
FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP. TO THE EAST, A SHIELD OF
IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST IS SLOWLY CREEPING WESTWARD. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT WITH THE FOG POTENTIALLY BECOMING DENSE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO 09Z. WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING,
THERE'S ALSO CONCERN FOR FREEZING FOG, SO OBS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY.
FOG WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MIX OUT TOMORROW MORNING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. THEREAFTER, EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY): PREDOMINANTLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING
TO BRING SEAS AROUND 6-10 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE IS
A 2-3 FEET UNDERDONE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET, BUT DO
EXPECT WAVES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...SK
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