219
FXUS62 KMHX 171728
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1228 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG HAS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF
ENC WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER HIGH TEMPS MAY BE ON THE ORDER
OF ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
2) LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS UNTIL THIS EVENING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...A WELCOME BREAK FROM COLD AS TEMPS CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WHILE COLD WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE COAST COOLER, MAINLY
IN THE 50S OBX AND 60S SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND, BUT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK MAY KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...LARGE POWERFUL BACKSWELL FROM A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES
TO IMPACT THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD 6-9
FT SWELL AT ABOUT 10-12 SEC PERIODS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND AS A
RESULT HAVE EXTENDED THE TIME PERIOD OF THIS LARGE AND POWERFUL
SWELL HANGING AROUND OUR COASTAL WATERS. BIGGEST CHANGE AS A
RESULT OF THIS IS THAT WE NOW HAVE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES IN THE TYPICAL MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE SWELL FINALLY SUBSIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE FINALLY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING FEW SITES, MOSTLY ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST WILL BE VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING SOME PATCHY MVFR LEVEL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE, BUT THE SIGNAL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THIS PAST MORNING.
WHILE WE STILL WILL HAVE GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE, AN INCREASING
WIND GRADIENT AND GOOD COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY TYPE OF WIDESPREAD FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SW WINDS, GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
FRONT TEMPORARILY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE DEPARTING LOW CONTINUING
TO BRING SEAS AROUND 6-10 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE IS
A 2-3 FEET UNDERDONE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET, BUT DO
EXPECT WAVES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
OUTLOOK: GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...SK
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