692
FXUS62 KMHX 171939
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
239 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG HAS SINCE DISSIPATED WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER LOW STRATUS
HANGING AROUND HATTERAS ISLAND. OTHERWISE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
2) LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS UNTIL THIS EVENING
3) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO ENC LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING UP NICELY ACROSS ENC, GETTING INTO
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES AND 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE OBX WHERE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING STEADY
SW FLOW AND WAA TO ENC INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT
MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE COLD IS FORECAST
FROM WED ONWARDS. HIGHS INLAND ARE FORECAST GET INTO THE 70S
EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX,
COOLER COASTAL WATERS MAY KEEP THESE AREAS CLOSER TO THE 50S TO
60S EACH DAY WHILE LOW TEMPS EACH NIGHT REMAIN IN THE 40S TO
50S. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD TEMPS, WHICH ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S INLAND. HOWEVER, THE ONE CAVEAT TO THE
REST OF THIS WEEKS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE THE IMPACT THAT PERIODS OF
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ON THE
TEMP FORECAST AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE
AS POWERFUL BACKSWELL FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE OUTER
BANKS THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD 6-9 FT SWELL WITH WAVE
PERIODS OF 10-13 SEC TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. GUIDANCE HAS
GRADUALLY GOTTEN A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THESE WAVES SO
CONTINUE TO EXPECT THIS ELEVATED SURF TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. SO CONTINUE TO
HAVE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE ACROSS OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS
ISLAND THROUGH 10PM TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES IN THE MORE VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING BEFORE SWELL
FINALLY SUBSIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3)...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH
THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY
AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE MID
LEVELS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE CONUS
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST BY SUN/MON WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES S'WARDS AT THE SAME TIME POTENTIALLY PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS ENC
ON SAT AND STALL AROUND THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT AND DEEPENING AFTER IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN THEN GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS TEMPS FALL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A NON IMPACTFUL
RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT THIS WEEKEND SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL COLD
AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE SETUP SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
OTHER PTYPE BESIDES RAIN. WILL NOTE, WHILE I HAVE USED A
PRIMARILY NBM BLEND FOR THE WEEKENDS POPS AS WELL, THE NBM
TYPICALLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH HOLDING ONTO MOISTURE FOR FAR
TOO LONG SO PRECIP COULD END MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS SETUP IS HOW DEEP THE
INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WILL THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PHASE AS THIS WILL
IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR COMING INTO ENC SUN INTO MON
AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW COULD GET
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE FINALLY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING FEW SITES, MOSTLY ALONG THE
EASTERN COAST WILL BE VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
INTO TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING SOME PATCHY MVFR LEVEL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE, BUT THE SIGNAL IS FAR WEAKER THAN THIS PAST MORNING.
WHILE WE STILL WILL HAVE GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE, AN INCREASING
WIND GRADIENT AND GOOD COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY TYPE OF WIDESPREAD FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH INCREASING SW WINDS, GUSTING TO 25-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK
FRONT TEMPORARILY SINK SOUTH INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN RETURN, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AS ELEVATED LONG PERIOD SWELL IMPACTS OUR WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP 6-9 FT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOWER
CLOSER TO 4-6 FT AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
TIGHTEN AS A SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGING 15-20 KT
SW'RLY WINDS AND 25-30 KT GUSTS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
5-7 FT SEAS. THERE IS A LOW END POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
WE SEE 25+ KT GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA SO ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE OF SCAS FOR WED.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE REGION.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/OJC
MARINE...RCF
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