317
FXUS62 KMHX 180805
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
RECORD VALUES ON FRIDAY.
2) LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS BRINGING LARGE BREAKING WAVES TODAY.
3) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO ENC LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE
BRINGING STEADY SW FLOW AND WAA TO ENC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. HIGHS INLAND ARE FORECAST CLIMB INTO THE 70S EACH
DAY WITH THE WARMEST DAY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHEN THICKNESSES
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. RECORD HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND THE RECORD
VALUES FOR ESTABLISHED CLIMATE SITES CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX, BELOW NORMAL
WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO 60S EACH DAY. THE ONE CAVEAT THAT MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL BE THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...WAVE GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL UNDERDONE WITH THE
SWELL BEING PRODUCED BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OFF THE GRAND BANKS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES AROUND 6 TO 7
FEET WITH PERIODS OF 12 TO 13 SECONDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH OF A DECREASE SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH ENERGY SWELLS ARE BRINGING BREAKING WAVES UP TO 8 FT IN THE
SURF ZONE WITH EXTENDED WAVE RUN UP ALONG THE BEACHES. THERE
REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH AT
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS WITH NO DUNES AROUND HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS
AROUND 7:45 THIS MORNING. DO EXPECT THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BUT GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE
MODELS, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO MID
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3)...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH
THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY
AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE MID
LEVELS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE CONUS
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST BY SUN/MON WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES S'WARDS AT THE SAME TIME POTENTIALLY PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS ENC
ON SAT AND STALL AROUND THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT AND DEEPENING AFTER IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN THEN GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS TEMPS FALL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A NON IMPACTFUL
RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT THIS WEEKEND SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL COLD
AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE SETUP SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
OTHER PTYPE BESIDES RAIN. WILL NOTE, WHILE I HAVE USED A
PRIMARILY NBM BLEND FOR THE WEEKENDS POPS AS WELL, THE NBM
TYPICALLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH HOLDING ONTO MOISTURE FOR FAR
TOO LONG SO PRECIP COULD END MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS SETUP IS HOW DEEP THE
INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND WILL THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PHASE AS THIS WILL
IMPACT THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR COMING INTO ENC SUN INTO MON
AS WELL AS HOW STRONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW COULD GET
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS MOST LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
BUT THERE IS A WINDOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GOOD SFC MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, THOUGH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MEANS WINDS MIGHT KEEP ENOUGH
MIXING IN PLACE. FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE WORKING AGAINST FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL BY LIMITING RAD
COOLING EFFECTS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF 6SM MIFG IN THE
PREVAILING LINES FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES
AND KEPT THE TEMPO SUBVFR MENTIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
ISSUANCE. WED, VFR WITH INCREASING SW WINDS, GUSTING TO 20-25KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TAF SITES HAVE MENTION OF LLWS IN THE
MORNING, SWERLY 35KT AT FL020, UNTIL BETTER MIXING COMMENCES
AROUND MIDMORNING.
OUTLOOK: CIGS LOWER FROM N TO S OVERNIGHT WED INTO THU,
APPROACHING MVFR THU MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS S INTO THE
REGION. THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH JUST
HOW FAR S THE MVFR CIGS MAKE IT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ENC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
WAVE GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL UNDERDONE WITH THE SWELL BEING
PRODUCED BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE
GRAND BANKS. LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES AROUND 6 TO 7 FEET WITH
PERIODS OF 12 TO 13 SECONDS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM DIAMOND
SHOALS NORTHWARD. DO EXPECT THE LONG PERIOD SWELL TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO DAY AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, HOWEVER A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL SERVE TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING SW WINDS
BRINGING AN INCREASING WIND CHOP WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 6-9 FT PEAKING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-20 KT ACROSS THE SOUNDS,
RIVERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE BELOW NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURE WILL BRING A MORE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT
NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS, SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. IN FACT, DIAMOND
BUOY, WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE REPORTED AS 72DEG, HAS BEEN
REPORTING WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30S KT EARLY
THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN ON FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 02/20
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 81/2018 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 82/1939 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ204-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/RCF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page