896
FXUS62 KMHX 182010
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
310 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
HATTERAS ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
RECORD VALUES ON FRIDAY.
2) LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
OUTER BANKS BRINGING LARGE BREAKING WAVES INTO TONIGHT.
3) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO ENC LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STEADY SW'RLY FLOW REMAINS OVER ENC WITH AMPLE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO GET WELL
INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO GET INTO THE 60S TO 70S THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
WARMEST DAY BEING ON FRIDAY WHEN THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND THE RECORD VALUES FOR
ESTABLISHED CLIMATE SITES CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX, BELOW NORMAL WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO 60S EACH DAY. THE ONE CAVEAT THAT MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2)... LONG PERIOD 13 TO 14 SECOND SWELL CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE OBX MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WEBCAMS AND LATEST BUOY DATA SUPPORT, HAVE ELECTED TO
EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS
OUT UNTIL 10PM TONIGHT AS OCCASIONAL 8 FT BREAKING WAVES LOOK
TO IMPACT THIS STRETCH. FURTHER SOUTH, WITH SHORTER WAVE
PERIODS CLOSER TO 7-8 SECONDS THE THREAT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED SO HAVE ENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY ACROSS OCRACOKE ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 3)...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST THINKING FOR
THIS WEEKEND AS A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH
THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY
AS IT REACHES THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE MID
LEVELS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE CONUS
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST BY SUN/MON WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIVES S'WARDS AT THE SAME TIME POTENTIALLY PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS ENC
ON SAT AND STALL AROUND THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT AND DEEPENING AFTER IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN THEN GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS TEMPS FALL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A NON IMPACTFUL
RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT THIS WEEKEND SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL COLD
AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE SETUP SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY
OTHER PTYPE BESIDES RAIN. WILL NOTE, WHILE I HAVE USED A
PRIMARILY NBM BLEND FOR THE WEEKENDS POPS AS WELL, THE NBM
TYPICALLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH HOLDING ONTO MOISTURE FOR FAR
TOO LONG SO PRECIP COULD END MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SAME CHALLENGES REMAIN WITH THIS FORECAST SETUP AS
THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH OVERALL SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVES SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FORCAST TRENDS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE ON
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR BUT WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW
WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS EVENING AS
MIXING CEASES, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUDBASES WILL RANGE FROM 3500-5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN CAROLINAS WILL BRING DECREASING CEILING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE PAMLICO RIVER/US 264 CORRIDOR AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD LATE TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT, AND CEILINGS
SHOULD DROP TO 2000-3000 FT TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF
US 64 INCLUDING KPGV. FARTHER SOUTH DOWN TO US 70, THERE ARE
MODERATE CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING, BUT AT EXACTLY
WHAT TIME AND FOR HOW LONG IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SOUTH OF
US 70, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS IN AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING ENC AND A DEVELOPING LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
WAVE GUIDANCE HAS COME BACK MORE INTO LINE WITH THE OBSERVATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WAVE PERIOD REMAINS UNDERDONE SO 5-6 FT SWELL
AT 13-14 SECONDS REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS SLIGHTLY
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS BY
TONIGHT SWELL SHOULD FINALLY ABATE AS THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SWELL PUSHES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER A SYSTEM PASSING
TO THE NORTH TODAY WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHT BRINGING ELEVATED SW WINDS AND BRINGING 5-8 FT SEAS TO
OUR COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR NOW. SW WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN TO AROUND 10-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP NEAR 25 KTS ACROSS THE SOUNDS, RIVERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE BELOW NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURE WILL BRING A MORE
STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE, BUT NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM
WATERS, SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KT.
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN ON FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 02/20
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 81/2018 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 82/1939 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SK/RCF
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