220
FXUS62 KMHX 191737
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADV HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS,
CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
RECORD VALUES ON FRIDAY.
2) LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
BANKS BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
3) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
TO ENC LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SW'RLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS ENC BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT MIXING HAVE KEPT TEMPS QUITE MILD EARLY THIS MORNING
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MID FEBRUARY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 70S INLAND TODAY AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON FRIDAY.
RECORD HIGHS FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND THE RECORD VALUES FOR ESTABLISHED CLIMATE SITES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND OBX, BELOW NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THESE AREAS
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S EACH DAY. THE ONE CAVEAT
THAT MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING RECORDS WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...LONG PERIOD 13 TO 14 SECOND SWELL CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE OBX MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FADE THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM AS BREAKING WAVES WILL BE
LESS THAN 8 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 3)...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE TROUGH
TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT
REACHES THE EAST COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE MID LEVELS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE CONUS REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST BY SUN/MON WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
S'WARDS AT THE SAME TIME POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS ENC ON SAT AND STALL AROUND
THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDING ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT AND DEEPENING AFTER IT PUSHES OFFSHORE BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
STRONG CAA RAMPING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS IT RAPIDLY
DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A NON IMPACTFUL RAIN/SNOW MIX
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT THIS WEEKEND SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE TYPICAL COLD AIR CHASING THE
MOISTURE SETUP SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ANY OTHER PTYPE
BESIDES RAIN. NBM TYPICALLY TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH HOLDING ONTO
MOISTURE FOR FAR TOO LONG SO PRECIP COULD END SOONER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE
DEPARTING LOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH STALLED FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL AS SEA FOG.
A WEAK FRONT SINKS S TOWARD THE FA, BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
MORE OPTIMISTIC, KEEPING THE FRONT JUST TO THE N OF ALL TAF
SITES BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWARD THE LATTER HALF OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, ALL SITES COULD SEE IFR, WITH BEST
POTENTIAL AT PGV. SE TAF SITES LIKELY TO REACH MVFR CIGS CLOSER
TO DAY BREAK FRI. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETTER CHANCES FRI. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRI, THEN GRAD EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR FRI AFTERNOON, LIKELY BY 21Z, THOUGH SEA FOG MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COAST, BEFORE VSBYS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
FRI EVE. SW WINDS GUSTS 15-25 KT FRI AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE SAME COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING ENC FRI NIGHT AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. VFR LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRI EVENING AND CONT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY SAT. MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE STALLED TO THE SOUTH BRINGING
LIKELY RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VIS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADV HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE A BACKDOOR
FRONT BRIEFLY DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN
15 KT EXCEPT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE GULF STREAM
IS ALLOWING BETTER MIXING WITH WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING AS
THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE WATERS WITH 13-14 SECOND PERIODS. WAVE HAVE BEEN VERY
SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT WITH BUOYS SHOWING 3-5 FT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS, BUT STILL SEEING 6-8 FT OFF OF
HATTERAS ISLAND. WAVE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT AND, IF IT REMAINS SO, EXPECT SEAS TO DROP
BELOW 6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AROUND MID DAY TODAY. WARM
AIR TRAVELING OVER THE COOL SSTS WE'VE HAD LATELY, ESPECIALLY
OVER NERN WATERS, WITH MOISTURE POOLING AND CHANGING WINDS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG THIS
MORNING, AS SUGGESTED BY A FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL
AND HIRES MODELS AS THE FRONT SAGS S INTO THE AREA. MORE
PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SEA FOG COVERING ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
DOWN THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST TONIGHT INTO FRI. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS IN THE NERN WATERS WITH THE FRONT, BUT THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR THE SERN EXTENT OF THE FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED VIS AND ADDED FOG TO THE GRIDS.
SHOULD THE MOST PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE PROVE CORRECT, VIS COULD BE
LESS THAN 1NM AT TIMES, WHICH WOULD WARRANT A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSER FOG IS THERE, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING HOW COOL THE NEARSHORE SSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
LATELY; UPPER 30S IN THE N, UPPER 40S S, A NOTABLE 10DEG COOLER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE HAS IN THEIR OWN SST GRIDS.
OUTLOOK: A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL BRING TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS, MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 02/20
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 81/2018 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 82/1939 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK/RCF
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