197
FXUS62 KMHX 191948
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
248 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS,
CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWERED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH FRI MORNING GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW BRINGING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ENC. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
RECORD VALUES ON FRIDAY.
2) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO ENC LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH A COLD
FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS HAS KEPT THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR FOR THE MOST PART AND DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER,
INLAND TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE 60S TO 70S THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG
THE OBX WIDESPREAD 50S ARE NOTED WITH SOME SEAFOG ENCROACHING
ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN OBX. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WILL BE MOVING LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT, EXPECT FAIRLY EXPANSIVE
SEAFOG ACROSS THESE WATERS TO POTENTIALLY ADVECT SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS STEADY SW'RLY WINDS BRING WARM
AIR OVER THE COOLER WATERS AROUND THE AREA. HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ON FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR
FRIDAY ARE IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND THE RECORD
VALUES FOR ESTABLISHED CLIMATE SITES CAN BE FOUND IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX, BELOW
NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S EACH DAY. THE ONE CAVEAT THAT MAY KEEP
TEMPS FROM REACHING RECORDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE
AREA. BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE
REDUCTION OF POP'S THROUGH FRI MORNING AS MUCH OF THE FORCING
SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH ALLOWING FOR JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ENC MAINLY NORTH OF
HWY 70 INTO FRI MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE TONIGHT
AS WELL ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE TROUGH
TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE MID LEVELS
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE CONUS REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST BY SUN/MON WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
S'WARDS AT THE SAME TIME POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS ENC ON SAT AND STALL AROUND
THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN RIDING ALONG THIS
STALLED FRONT AND DEEPENING AFTER IT PUSHES OFFSHORE BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MAYBE SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA RAMPING UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
NON IMPACTFUL RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
TYPICAL COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE SETUP SO HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY OTHER PTYPE BESIDES RAIN. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS AND
DEEPENS AS THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL COASTAL IMPACTS WORST
CASE SCENARIO.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SETUP WILL BE WHEN THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN AS A WEAKER AND MORE OUT TO SEA LOW TRACK WILL RESULT
IN LOWER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WHILE A STRONGER AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST TRACK WILL BRING GREATER IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH STALLED FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL AS SEA FOG.
A WEAK FRONT SINKS S TOWARD THE FA, BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
MORE OPTIMISTIC, KEEPING THE FRONT JUST TO THE N OF ALL TAF
SITES BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWARD THE LATTER HALF OF TODAY.
WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, ALL SITES COULD SEE IFR, WITH BEST
POTENTIAL AT PGV. SE TAF SITES LIKELY TO REACH MVFR CIGS CLOSER
TO DAY BREAK FRI. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BETTER CHANCES FRI. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF FRI, THEN GRAD EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR FRI AFTERNOON, LIKELY BY 21Z, THOUGH SEA FOG MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COAST, BEFORE VSBYS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
FRI EVE. SW WINDS GUSTS 15-25 KT FRI AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CIGS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
WITH THE SAME COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CROSSING ENC FRI NIGHT AND
A DEVELOPING LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. VFR LIKELY TO RETURN BY FRI EVENING AND CONT THROUGH AT
LEAST MID DAY SAT. MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH THE AREA
ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE STALLED TO THE SOUTH BRINGING
LIKELY RAIN AND LOWER CIGS/VIS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADV REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH TONIGHT. WITH A MUCH
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, SW'RLY WINDS PERSIST AT
ABOUT 5-10 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS, THOUGH SOME 4-6 FT SEAS DO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL WATERS. THIS HAS KEPT THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE
LOOKOUT AND OREGON INLET. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS NOTED OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. WINDS THEN
PICK UP SLIGHTLY TO 10-20 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH SOME GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.
THIS WILL KEEP SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WATERS ALSO SEEING SCA CONDITIONS STARTING FRI MORNING WITH
THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO 4-7 SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND 3-5 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET.
WARM AIR TRAVELING OVER THE COOL SSTS WE'VE HAD LATELY,
ESPECIALLY OVER NERN WATERS, WITH MOISTURE POOLING AND CHANGING
WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG
ACROSS OUR NE'RN ZONES AND A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THERE. MORE PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SEA FOG COVERING
ALL NEARSHORE WATERS DOWN THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST TONIGHT INTO
FRI. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW FAR
SOUTH SEAFOG GETS AS E GET INTO TONIGHT BUT ADDITIONAL MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH IF THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE VERIFIES.
OUTLOOK:A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING WHAT CONDITIONS OUR
COASTAL WATERS SEE SO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE THE FORECAST TRENDS MORE
OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 02/20
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 81/2018 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 82/1939 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK/RCF
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