000
FXUS62 KMHX 201838
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
138 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO TONIGHT.
TRENDED UPWARDS WITH WINDS FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY, AND INTRODUCED A
TRACE TO 0.2" SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN OBX AND MUCH
OF THE PAMLICO-ALBEMARLE PENINSULA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
2) A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY WITH A
LINE OF GUSTY PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
3) HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORD VALUES TODAY.
4) LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO ENC LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE ENC
WATERS TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...WARM AND MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS THE MUCH COOLER
COASTAL WATERS IS BRINGING SEA FOG TO OUR COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE ACROSS THE
AFFECTED AREA AND EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
E/NE EARLY SATURDAY WILL HELP SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING SEA FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...AN UPPER LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARM AND MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM
AND MOIST CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH RAP MESOANALYSIS SHOWING CAPE OF AROUND
1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHILE STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SW WINDS
HAS BROUGHT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO AROUND 50 KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE BUT THEY COULD
BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THIS IS REINFORCED BY
THE 42 KT OBSERVED GUST NEAR GOLDSBORO AT KGSB AS THE LINE WENT
THROUGH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS IS
INLAND AS THE COLD WATERS ALONG THE COAST AND SOUNDS BRINGING
MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3)...INCREASING SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1390-1395M ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION IS
REALIZED. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ARE
HELPING BRING TEMPS DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST, SO BEST SHOT OF 80F
WOULD BE FOR AREAS ALONG HWY 17 WHERE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND THE RECORD VALUES FOR ESTABLISHED
CLIMATE SITES CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX, BELOW NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 4)...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE TROUGH
TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE MID LEVELS SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRAVERSES THE CONUS REACHING THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUN/MON WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES
S'WARDS AT THE SAME TIME POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AS IT PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE,
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS ENC LATE TONIGHT AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
RIDING ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT AND DEEPENING AFTER IT PUSHES
OFFSHORE BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA RAMPING UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A NON
IMPACTFUL RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT THIS
WEEKEND SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WHILE SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING OVER AN INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE TYPICAL COLD AIR
CHASING THE MOISTURE SETUP. FOR THIS REASON, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
AROUND THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. HOWEVER, WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTING MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, HAVE ADDED T-0.2" OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WITH THIS UPDATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, HAVE
INTRODUCED A COUPLE HOURS OF CHC/SCHC SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS NORTHERN TIER, AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD RAIN/SNOW. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE
WILL HAVE DRIED UP A DECENT AMOUNT AT THAT POINT. WE WILL NEED
TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STRONGER WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW AS IT DEPARTS AND DEEPENS AS THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
COASTAL IMPACTS AS A WORST CASE SCENARIO.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SETUP WILL BE WHEN THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEEPEN AS A WEAKER AND MORE OUT TO SEA LOW TRACK WILL RESULT
IN LOWER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WHILE A STRONGER AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST TRACK WILL BRING GREATER IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH 21Z, WHICH COULD BRING TEMPO SUB-VFR AND GUSTS 30-40 KT.
SW GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30 KT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LLWS IS A CONCERN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH
40-45KT WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION AROUND FL015-020. SEA FOG WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST TONIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
INLAND AS WELL BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH LITTLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DEVELOPMENT RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA SAT, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER 15Z.
OUTLOOK: MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG TONIGHT'S
FRONT THAT WILL HAVE STALLED TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING LIKELY RAIN,
LOWER CIGS/VIS, AND STRONGER WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
WARM AND MOIST SW FLOW ADVECTING OVER THE COOL SSTS IS LEADING
TO PATCHY TO AREAS OF SEA FOG ALONG COASTAL MARINE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTH HAS INCREASING SW FLOW
DOE ENC THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE COOLER
WATERS, BUT OFFSHORE NEAR THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS HAVE
SEEN WINDS AROUND 20-30 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND
4-7 FT ALONG WARMER WATERS IN RESPONSE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA AND STALLING OFFSHORE. AN SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW RAPIDLY
DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW WILL GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING WHAT CONDITIONS OUR
COASTAL WATERS SEE SO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST
TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS IN CASE THE FORECAST TRENDS MORE
OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC. IT IS WORTH NOTING, WITH THIS UPDATE
THE WINDS HAVE TRENDED UP A NOTCH, 35-40 KNOT GUSTS ALONG MUCH OF
OUR COASTAL WATERS, 25-35 KNOT GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY 02/20
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 81/1991 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 74/2018 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 81/2018 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 73/1994 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 82/1939 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 82/1991 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK/RJ
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