040
FXUS62 KMHX 210818
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
318 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS WITH SUNDAY-MONDAY COASTAL LOW.
GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR MOST AREA WATERS.
AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO MOST AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264, ALTHOUGH FORECAST TOTALS REMAIN
UNDER HALF AN INCH.
FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE AT TIMES, WILL LINGER UNTIL FRONT COMPLETELY
CLEARS THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS S OF
OCRACOKE INLET HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SUNRISE. MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED YET AGAIN DEPENDING ON IF THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
AREA OR NOT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY BEHIND A STALLED FRONT.
2) RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A HOST OF IMPACTS TO OUR AREA INCLUDING STRONG
WINDS AND MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
MARINE...THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING EASTERN NC IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND STALL. COMBINED WITH A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, THE
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ON- AND- OFF ISENTROPICALLY FORCED
LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT, AMOUNTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY (VERY
WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE), WITH THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT PHASES WITH A FASTER
MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR CYCLOGENESIS,
INTENSIFYING SUNDAY AS TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASING NEUTRAL AND
EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER SOME TRACK
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES, THE 00Z
SUITE THIS MORNING HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION FAVORING A
STRONGER LOW PASSING QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL FROM THE ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION,
MORE ROBUST RAINFALL WILL RETURN SUNDAY MORNING. EASTERN NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, BUT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S SUN MORNING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND EQUIVALENT
TDS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. TOTAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
AMOUNT CLOSER TO A HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION WILL BOOST
STORM TOTALS.
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA RAMPING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING TEMPS
TO FALL INTO THE 30S. GLOBAL, ENSEMBLE AND HI-RES GUIDANCE ALL
AGREE ON A RISK OF MINOR SNOWFALL NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AS COOLER
AIR GETS WRAPPED IN WITH THE MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH THE 00Z SUITE
HAS TRENDED ACCUMULATIONS FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE VA BORDER.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEST FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, AND
OUR FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CONSENSUS - THE ONLY CHANGE BEING THE
EXPANSION OF ACCUMULATIONS WEST THROUGH PORTIONS OF PITT AND
MARTIN COUNTIES. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOW
MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE DRIED UP A DECENT AMOUNT AT THAT
POINT.
A STRONGER LOW NOW FAVORS A SET UP OF STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GUSTS PUSHING
45-50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IF THIS HOLDS,
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO.
THIS HAS ALSO RAISED THE RISK OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE BREVITY OF
STRONGER GUSTS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THAT FLOW, PRE-CONDITIONED LOW-
LEVELS FROM EARLIER RAIN, AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF REDUCED VIS IN BR/FG UNTIL THE FRONT
COMPLETELY CLEARS ANY RESPECTIVE LOCATION. AFTER THAT TIME,
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT. DESPITE LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT, I AM GOING WITH
PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES FROM
6-10Z. SOME SITES MAY ABSOLUTELY CRATER WITH LIFR OR VLIFR
POSSIBLE, BEST CHANCE FOR THIS HAPPENING WILL BE ISO AND PGV,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT EXPLICITLY IN
THE TAF, BUT WORTH MENTIONING HERE. WITH OAJ'S SECLUDED LOCATION
AND EWN'S PROXIMITY TO WATER, THEY'RE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
WOODS FOR SUBIFR FLIGHT CATS EITHER, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THESE
TWO LOCATIONS IS SLIGHTLY LOWER.
AFTER AN INITIAL DRYING PERIOD IN THE LOW LEVELS DIRECTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY SAT. RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO BE
LIGHT, AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY VFR VIS. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A VERY LOW- END TSRA RISK
NEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASED RISK OF LLWS IMPACTS THROUGH AROUND 05Z-07Z THIS
EVENING, MAINLY FROM KISO EAST THROUGH KFFA.
OUTLOOK: MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATS BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH CIGS DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SAT NIGHT PERSISTING INTO SUN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG TONIGHT'S FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
STALLED TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING LIKELY RAIN, LOWER CIGS/VIS, AND
STRONGER NWERLY WINDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET THIS MORNING AMID PERSISTENT MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER COOLER WATERS, WHILE COLD FRONT REMAINS
STALLED TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING AND HELP SCOUR OUT LOWER
VISIBILITIES.
SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED AS SEAS FALL TO 3-5 FEET AND WESTERLY WINDS
DROP TO 10-15 KT, BUT STILL UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES ACROSS OUTER
WATERS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY BENIGN FOR MUCH OF
TODAY INTO TOMORROW IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ZIPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
STRONG GALES LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW,
AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL OFFSHORE WATERS AND INLAND
SOUNDS WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40-45 KT. SOME STORM-FORCE GUSTS
ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY
OF THIS CURRENTLY REMAINS LOW (AROUND 10%). SEAS WILL RISE IN
RESPONSE TO AROUND 7-10+ FEET, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: GALES LAST INTO MONDAY MIDDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO EXTEND WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FALL ENOUGH TO
LET SEAS SUBSIDE. OFFSHORE WATERS LIKELY TO REMAIN POOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS NEXT WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ150-152.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ154-156-158.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS
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