045
FXUS62 KMHX 211828
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY COASTAL
LOW. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
SOUNDS AND RIVERS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES
STILL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264, WITH THE FORECAST
TOTALS UNDER 0.5".
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.
2) RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A HOST OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA INCLUDING STRONG
WINDS, MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
MARINE...THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW, THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ON- AND- OFF
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BEST CHANCES SHIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST THIS EVENING
AND FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT,
AMOUNTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY
AS IT PHASES WITH A FASTER MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE,
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL
POINT FOR CYCLOGENESIS, INTENSIFYING SUNDAY AS TROUGH TAKES ON
AN INCREASING NEUTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE
DAY. AFTER SOME TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW
FORECAST CYCLES, THE 12Z SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A STRONGER
LOW PASSING QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL FROM THE ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION,
MORE ROBUST RAINFALL WILL RETURN SUNDAY MORNING. EASTERN NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, BUT TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SUN MORNING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND EQUIVALENT
TDS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. TOTAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
AMOUNT CLOSER TO A HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION WILL BOOST
STORM TOTALS. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA RAMPING UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. GLOBAL, ENSEMBLE AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A RISK OF MINOR SNOWFALL NORTH OF HIGHWAY
264 AS COOLER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN WITH THE MOISTURE. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEST FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, AND OUR
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CONSENSUS - WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING A FEW TENTHS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
264. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SFC TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE
DRIED UP A DECENT AMOUNT AT THAT POINT.
A STRONGER LOW NOW FAVORS A SET UP OF STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GUSTS PUSHING
45-50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IF THIS HOLDS,
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT CYCLE. THIS HAS ALSO
RAISED THE RISK OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS, MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS. LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED, AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE BULK OF
ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. FLIGHT CATS SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHEN CIGS WILL DECREASE TO
MVFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MODERATE RAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO LIFR (OR
NEAR LIFR FOR EWN) AROUND DAWN WITH VIS DECREASING TO MVFR DURING
THIS TIME WELL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10G15KT BY LATE MORNING AS CIGS IMPROVE TO IFR.
RAIN WILL BE OFF AND ON BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND VIS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR, BUT IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: IFR FLIGHT CATS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A
LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. AS CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW,
PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. AFTER CONDITIONS RETURN VFR ON MONDAY, PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RIVERS, SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NE WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. STRONG GALES LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN W-WNW FLOW BEHIND THE
LOW, AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 35-45 KT. SOME STORM-FORCE GUSTS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF THIS CURRENTLY
REMAINS LOW (AROUND 10%). SEAS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO AROUND
7-10+ FEET, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY BUT SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXTEND WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WESTERLY
WINDS FALL ENOUGH TO LET SEAS SUBSIDE. OFFSHORE WATERS LIKELY TO
REMAIN POOR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
NEXT WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135-
150-152.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...OJC
MARINE...CQD
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