250
FXUS62 KMHX 220150
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
850 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS WITH THE SUNDAY-MONDAY COASTAL
LOW. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
SOUNDS AND RIVERS.
LITTLE CHANGE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES
STILL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264, WITH THE FORECAST
TOTALS UNDER 0.5".
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT.
2) RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A HOST OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA INCLUDING STRONG
WINDS, MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
MARINE...THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT STALLED NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- LEVEL
FLOW, THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ON- AND- OFF ISENTROPICALLY
FORCED LIGHT RAINFALL EARLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS
TO OUR SOUTH, JUST ALOFT AT AROUND 850MB WE DO HAVE EVIDENCE OF
A FRONTAL INVERSION ON THE 00Z SOUNDING, SUGGESTING THE
BOUNDARY IS DISPLACED ALOFT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN OUR FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 17, IN
THE NEAR TERM.
KEY MESSAGE 2)...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH
THE TROUGH TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY
AS IT PHASES WITH A FASTER MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE,
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL
POINT FOR CYCLOGENESIS, INTENSIFYING SUNDAY AS TROUGH TAKES ON
AN INCREASING NEUTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE
DAY. AFTER SOME TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW
FORECAST CYCLES, THE 12Z SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A STRONGER
LOW PASSING QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL FROM THE ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION,
MORE ROBUST RAINFALL WILL RETURN SUNDAY MORNING. EASTERN NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW, BUT TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SUN MORNING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND EQUIVALENT
TDS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO. TOTAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
AMOUNT CLOSER TO A HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION WILL BOOST
STORM TOTALS. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA RAMPING UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. GLOBAL, ENSEMBLE AND HI-RES
GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A RISK OF MINOR SNOWFALL NORTH OF HIGHWAY
264 AS COOLER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN WITH THE MOISTURE. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEST FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, AND OUR
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS CONSENSUS - WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEEPING A FEW TENTHS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
264. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SFC TEMPS. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE
DRIED UP A DECENT AMOUNT AT THAT POINT.
A STRONGER LOW NOW FAVORS A SET UP OF STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GUSTS PUSHING
45-50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IF THIS HOLDS,
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT CYCLE. THIS HAS ALSO
RAISED THE RISK OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS, MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS. LOCALIZED OCEAN OVERWASH
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE ISLANDS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY WILL CREEP NORTH BRINGING WITH IT LOWER
CEILINGS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. CURRENTLY EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO OAJ, EWN, ISO IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS,
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD. PGV SHOULD FOLLOW SUIT AROUND 6Z,
WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR BEFORE
SUNRISE. FOR NOW KEPT LIFR MENTIONS AS A SCT003 WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE OF OCCURING. FURTHER UPGRADES TO PREDOMINANT LIFR MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES IF OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM START TANKING
TO LIFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AS RAIN
MOVES INTO THE REGION. HEAVIER RAIN RATES WOULD BRING REDUCTIONS
TO VISIBILITY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10G15KT BY LATE MORNING AS CIGS REMAIN AT IFR
LEVELS. RAIN WILL BE OFF AND ON BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND VIS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR, BUT IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE IMPROVING CEILINGS, RAINFALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD HELP MIX DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR
ALOFT. THIS MEANS OBSERVED GUSTS COULD BE MORE THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST, POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK: AS CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, PRECIP WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AFTER CONDITIONS RETURN VFR ON MONDAY, PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RIVERS, SOUNDS
AND COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NE WINDS 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. STRONG GALES LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN W-WNW FLOW BEHIND THE
LOW, AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNINGS WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 35-45 KT. SOME STORM-FORCE GUSTS ARE NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF THIS CURRENTLY
REMAINS LOW (AROUND 10%). SEAS WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO AROUND
7-10+ FEET, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 10 NM OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY BUT SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXTEND WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WESTERLY
WINDS FALL ENOUGH TO LET SEAS SUBSIDE. OFFSHORE WATERS LIKELY TO
REMAIN POOR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
NEXT WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135-
150-152.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/MS
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...CQD
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