018
FXUS62 KMHX 220751
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
251 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE OUTER BANKS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA WATERS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR HATTERAS ISLAND.
LITTLE CHANGE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES STILL
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264, WITH THE FORECAST TOTALS
UNDER 0.5".
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A HOST OF IMPACTS TO THE AREA
INCLUDING STRONG WINDS, MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
2) NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
TONIGHT, WITH A LOW (NEAR 10%) RISK OF SOME STORM-FORCE GUSTS
OVER THE GULF STREAM
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)...POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS
THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AND
DEEPEN AS IT PHASES WITH A FASTER MOVING MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY RACING ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCAL POINT FOR CYCLOGENESIS, INTENSIFYING LATER TODAY AS
TROUGH TAKES ON AN INCREASING NEUTRAL AND EVENTUALLY NEGATIVE
TILT THROUGH THE DAY. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
STRONG LOW TRAVERSING QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST, EVENTUALLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND HAMMERING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND.
REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN LIFTING
TOWARDS EASTERN NC THIS MORNING, AND EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN AS
LOW DEEPENS AND MORE ROBUST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE NEARS OUR AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS TO
SUPPORT A LOW-END THUNDER RISK AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 60 WITH
SIMILAR TDS. NBM FORECAST OFFERED THUNDER TOO FAR NORTH AND
TRIMMED THIS CLOSER TO THE WATER. TOTAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AMOUNT CLOSER TO A HALF INCH, ALTHOUGH ANY
CONVECTION WILL BOOST STORM TOTALS. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY ENDS
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG CAA
RAMPING UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF
THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S.
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A BRIEF CHANGE-OVER
TO SNOW AS COOLER AIR GETS WRAPPED IN TO THE AREA, MAINLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A MODEST FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SO OFFERED MINIMAL CHANGE HERE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED A
MINORITY OF GUIDANCE DEPICTS A BIT MORE ROBUST LIFT ACROSS THIS
REGION AND SUGGESTING A RISK OF TOTALS EXCEEDING AN INCH. RIGHT
NOW, THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT (AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE,
GENEROUSLY). MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SFC TEMPS. A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE DEPARTING LOW MAY KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE DRIED UP A DECENT AMOUNT AT
THAT POINT.
STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL FAVORED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND THE
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GUSTS PUSHING 45-50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTER BANKS. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FROM THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS SOUTHWARD TO DOWN EAST CARTERET CO. THIS
HAS ALSO RAISED THE RISK OF SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS,
MAINLY ALONG THE SOUNDSIDE OF THE OUTER BANKS. LOCALIZED OCEAN
OVERWASH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE
ISLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2) THE NEXT RAINMAKER FOR OUR AREA ARRIVES LATE NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TIMING ON WHEN
THIS BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH HAS SHIFTED BACK AND FORTH AS
EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN IS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ALL LIQUID WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A QUARTER
INCH.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS CURRENTLY BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER, WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SAY SUN. CIGS LOWER FROM S TO N AS
YESTERDAY'S FRONT LIFTS BACK NWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW.
MVFR CIGS>FL020 ARRIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 2HRS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CIGS
MAKE THAT THE PREVAILING CIG, AND DIDN'T WANT TO WASTE A LINE
WITH A TEMPO WHEN I WANTED TO SHOW THE IMPROVEMENT OUT OF IFR
THAT IS EXPECTED LATTER HALF OF SUN. KEPT LIFR MENTIONS AS A SCT
GROUP TO SHOW THE TIMING OF THE GREATEST POTENTIAL, WHICH
SHOULD BE AN HR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE SUN. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY,
AND THIS TAF ISSUANCE SHOWS A STRONGER WIND FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS ITERATIONS. NNWERLY 5-10G15KT BY LATE
MORNING, NWERLY 10-15G25-30KT IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVIER
RAIN RATES COULD BRING REDUCTIONS TO VIS FIRST HALF OF SUN.
RAIN WILL BE OFF AND ON BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE, WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR SPREADING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK: AS CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, PRECIP WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NERN-MOST TERMINALS
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW OTHER THAN VIS
REDUCTIONS WHILE IT'S FALLING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS MELTING
AWAY QUICKLY MON AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
AFTER SUNRISE MON. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS, SOUNDS AND
COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST OBS SHOW N-NE WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TODAY AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRONG
GALES LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN W-WNW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW, WITH GALE
WARNINGS BEING RETAINED. PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 KT,
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A LOW (10% CHANCE) OF SOME STORM- FORCE
GUSTS PRIMARILY OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. SEAS
WILL RISE IN RESPONSE TO AROUND 7-10+ FEET, ESPECIALLY BEYOND
10 NM OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: GALES LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY BUT SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXTEND WELL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WESTERLY
WINDS FALL ENOUGH TO LET SEAS SUBSIDE. OFFSHORE WATERS LIKELY TO
REMAIN POOR THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ135.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ150-152.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS
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