554
FXUS62 KMHX 140943
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
543 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELED ACTIVE SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO
CAPE HATTERAS, BUT HAD TO EXTEND THE ACTIVE SCA FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO HATTERAS INLET FOR 3 MORE HRS.
CONTINUE TO ISSUE NEW MARINE HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FROPA EVENT
WHICH WILL START LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO MID- WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY EVENING POSES A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
3) RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MINS AT OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MARINE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RETURNS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN AREA OF WEAK, DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRAVEL ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST SUN. THE LOW, STARTING OFF THE FL
EAST COAST SUN MORNING, WILL REACH THE CAROLINAS SUN EVENING,
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS. RAIN WILL START
LIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BECOMING MORE VIGOROUS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THIS MORE EXCITED CONVECTION
POSES A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GREATEST ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST NWARD ACROSS THE OBX.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AND PEAK WITH THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION,
AND WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH, THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH A LESSER
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL. DESTABILIZATION COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
INHIBITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SUN AND SUN
NIGHT, BUT EVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN THE 90-100KT OF
BULK SHEAR. NON ZERO CHANCE OF PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON WITH SELECT HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWCASING
AREAS OF 250-500 SRH, ESPECIALLY IF GREATER CLEARING OVERNIGHT
SUN ALLOWS MORE INSTABILITY TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE LINE. BECAUSE
OF ALL THIS, SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE MAJORITY OF ENC IN AN
ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND AI NWP FORECASTS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STOUT LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A STRONG
BACKGROUND WIND-FIELD. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST, DOWN EAST, AND OBX MON EVENING INTO MON
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ENC EARLY
TUE WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BEHIND IT. THE AFTERNOON'S
CAA AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES
AND CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO MINTS AOB FREEZING FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AREA, MID 30S OBX.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH IS BRINGING A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ENC OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING
ELIMINATING THE FOG THREAT FOR MOST AREAS. GRADIENTS GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH AND FAR SOUTHERN RTES MAY
DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP. HREF GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS ACROSS SOUTHERN
DUPLIN/WESTERN ONSLOW COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, A STRONG LLJ OVER NW
RTES MAY BRING MINOR LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH AROUND 09Z.
OUTLOOK...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ENC SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
OBS CURRENTLY SHOWING WSWERLY WINDS 10-20KT ACROSS ALMOST ALL
WATERS SAVE FOR 15-20G25-30KT WINDS OVER GSTREAM WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY 3-4FT@5-6SEC. THE BANE OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE GSTREAM WATERS S OF CAPE HATT AROUND DIAMOND SHOALS
WHERE THE OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS 20-25G30KT. WINDS HERE HAVE
OUTPERFORMED ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL
UNDERDONE, THEY GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WINDS COME DOWN THROUGH THE
MORNING. I HAVE EXTENDED THE ACTIVE SCA FOR THE ZONE COVERING
DIAMOND SHOALS (CAPE HATT TO HATT INLET) UP TO 0900EST.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES
REGIONAL WATERS BEHIND WEAK FRONT WITH WINDS WEAKENING AS THEY
VEER TO MORE NERLY MID- DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS RELAXING
OF WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED
TO LIFT NWARD THROUGH AREA WATERS SUN AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSING FROM W TO E LATE MON. WINDS FLIP AROUND TO BECOME EERLY
10-15KT THIS EVENING AND WILL STRENGTHEN YET AGAIN BECOMING
MORE SERLY UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES MON NIGHT. WINDS PEAK MON
NIGHT, 15-25G30KT OVER SMALLER INLAND WATERS, 20-30G35KT LARGER
SOUNDS, WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER GSTREAM WATERS 30-35G40-45KT.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT UNTIL
DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND MON NIGHT'S FRONT AND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT. SHOULD THE TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HOLD, GALE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS
AHEAD OF MON NIGHT'S FROPA. HAVE BEGUN ISSUING THE SCAS FOR
COASTAL WATERS NOT CURRENTLY UNDER ANY HEADLINES WITH SCA
CRITERIA WINDS REENTERING SERN-MOST COASTAL WATERS BY 0600EST
SUN.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 10-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...CEB
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