508
FXUS62 KMHX 150023
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
823 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED GALE WATCHES ALONG ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
START TIME OF THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY EVENING POSES A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
3) RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MINS AT OR BELOW FREEZING TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT BEFORE POTENTIAL
GALE FORCE WINDS IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR WATERS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE FL/GA COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARDS
WITH THIS LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT REACHING THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY EVENING AND PUSHING NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ENC STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT
NEAR AND TRACK ACROSS ENC AND FORCING BECOMES MAXIMIZED. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THEN FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AMOUNTS LIKELY OCCURING
ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH, E'RLY
WINDS WILL VEER TO A SE AND THEN S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR WARM MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR INSTABILITY TO ADVECT INTO ENC SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LATEST HI-RES CAMS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES BUILDING TO AROUND 500-750
J/KG OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 25-35 KTS AND AND WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES TOPPING
OUT AROUND 100M2S2 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT EITHER AS ANY POTENTIAL WATERSPOUT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVES INLAND SO CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR SUN NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. LATEST FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PEAKING WITH THE FROPA MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY BUILDS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG, DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF
60+ KTS, AND SRH VALUES INCREASING TO 200+ M2S2 MON AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MON
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING THE MORE
LIKELY THREAT, WHILE SMALL HAIL BEING A LESSER THREAT WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
THE ONLY PROVERBIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT TAKES PLACE ON MON. MORNING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS ACROSS ENC ON MON, BUT EVEN
MEAGER INSTABILITY COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND SRH VALUES IN PLACE.
BECAUSE OF ALL THIS, SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE MAJORITY OF ENC IN AN
ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AND AI NWP FORECASTS
REMAIN QUITE BULLISH ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STOUT LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A STRONG
BACKGROUND WIND-FIELD. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST, DOWN EAST, AND OBX MON EVENING INTO MON
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ENC EARLY
TUE WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BEHIND IT. THE AFTERNOON'S
CAA AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND
CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO MINTS AOB FREEZING FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AREA, MID 30S OBX.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR AND SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT WITH STCU BEGINNING TO
PUSH INLAND OFF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS
STRATOCU HAS POTENTIAL TO BE AT MVFR LEVELS, WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 70-90% SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT
WINDS TODAY, BECOMING GUSTY ESE SUN AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE
COAST TSTORM CHANCES INCREASE, WITH A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK
OF SEVERE TSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ENC THROUGH
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE MONDAY. PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
LIGHT 5-10 KT SW'RLY WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS CURRENTLY PERSIST
ACROSS OUR WATERS AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE AND HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL VEER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO MORE OF A NERLY DIRECTION THIS
EVENING. THIS RELAXING OF WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NWARD THROUGH AREA WATERS SUN
AND A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING FROM W TO E LATE MON. WINDS
FLIP AROUND TO BECOME EERLY 10-15KT THIS EVENING AND WILL
STRENGTHEN YET AGAIN BECOMING MORE SERLY UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES
MON NIGHT. WINDS PEAK MON NIGHT, 15-25G30KT OVER SMALLER INLAND
WATERS, 20-30G35KT LARGER SOUNDS, WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
GSTREAM WATERS 30-35G40-45KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED STRONG SIGNAL
BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE ELECTED TO
HOIST GALE WATCHES ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND STARTING ON MON WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS STARTING
ON MON AS WELL. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND MON NIGHT'S FRONT AND
TUE'S REINFORCING FRONT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 10-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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