216
FXUS62 KMHX 150903
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
503 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR FROPA
MON. HAVE ADDED SEVERE TSTORM WORDING TO WX GRIDS FROM LATE MON
MORNING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MON NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AND THEN EVEN STRONGER SERLY
FLOW ON MON HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR EASTERN CARTERET THROUGH OCRACOKE AND HATTERAS ISLANDS FROM
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONVERTED MOST OF THE ACTIVE GALE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AS
WELL AS ADDED SCAS FOR SMALLER INSIDE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT MON EVENING BRINGS STRENGTHENING WINDS
AND CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
3) RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MINS APPROACHING FREEZING TUES MORNING AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS IMPACTING COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND MON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE FL/GA COAST THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY LIFT NWARD WITH THIS
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT REACHING THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVENING AND REACHING THE VA BORDER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MORNING, LIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INNER
BANKS AND CRYSTAL COAST EARLY. SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR AND
TRACK ACROSS ENC, WARM SECTORING THE FA AND INCREASING DYNAMIC
FORCING. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWARD, EERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO
A SEERLY AND EVENTUALLY SERLY OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARM
MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, INCREASING INSTABILITY.
HIRES CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCAPE VALUES BUILDING TO ~500-750
J/KG OVERNIGHT. THIS, COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 25-35 KTS AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES ~100M2S2, THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST
STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED
OUT EITHER AS ANY POTENTIAL WATERSPOUT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS COULD REACH THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND. THE
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY BUILD SEAS, LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY. BEACHES SUSCEPTIBLE TO A SEERLY WAVE DIRECTION COULD
BE AT RISK FOR WAVE RUNUP ISSUES AND MAYBE OCEAN OVERWASH FOR
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON TODAY, BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
MOVES EWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TOMORROW. LATEST
FORECASTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. FIRST, PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
SHARPENS EARLY AS LLJ STRENGTHENS, OPENING THE DOOR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION STARTING EARLY MON MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KTS, AND SRH VALUES INCREASING TO
200+ M2S2 MON AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY, WITH ANY CELLS WITH EVEN
MODERATE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF BRINGING THE STOUT
WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, WHILE SMALL HAIL BEING
A LESSER THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP WILL BE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. THIS LINE
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE DAMAGING WINDS AND A QLCS
TOR THREAT.
MORNING SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE FA MON, BUT
EVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY COULD STILL PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTORMS GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN PLACE. BECAUSE OF ALL
THIS, SPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF ENC IN AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A A MODERATE (4/5) RISK JUST TO OUR W
FROM SC NWARD INTO VA, WHERE THE GREATEST CHANCE DYNAMICS WILL
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, AND THEREFORE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES TO FEED STORMS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. AI NWP FORECASTS REMAIN QUITE BULLISH ON SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STOUT LLJ AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A STRONG BACKGROUND WIND-FIELD. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST, DOWN
EAST, AND OBX MON EVENING INTO MON NIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON WITH BEACH EROSION AND OCEAN
OVERWASH REMAINING A CONCERN FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SERLY WAVE DIRECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE INITIAL BLAST OF CAA DIRECTLY BEHIND MON'S
FROPA WILL LEAD TO MINTS APPROACHING FREEZING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ENC EARLY TUE
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BEHIND IT. THE AFTERNOON'S CAA
AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING
WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO MINTS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AREA, MID TO UPPER 30S DOWNEAST AND OBX.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS ENC RTES UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES,
ALTHOUGH STCU HAS JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. HIRES
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STCU EXPANDING AND LIFTING ACROSS RTES THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 4K FT BUT HREF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS (UP TO 70-90%) DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
EXPECT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY MORNING.
LIGHT ELY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME SLY AROUND 10-25 KT THIS EVENING AND WILL SEE LLWS
CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ENC MONDAY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH SPC
PLACING ENC IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN
COASTAL PLAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
ESEERLY WINDS CURRENTLY 15-20KT OFFSHORE, 10-15KT INSIDE, WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT@4-6SEC. THESE WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S AND LIFTS NWARD
THROUGH AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSES FROM W TO E LATE MON/EARLY TUE. WINDS GRADUALLY
VEER TO BECOME MORE SEERLY WHILE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS PEAK MON NIGHT, 15-25G30KT OVER SMALLER INLAND WATERS,
20-30G35KT LARGER SOUNDS, WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER GSTREAM
WATERS 30-35G40-45KT. HAVE UPGRADED ALL BUT ONE GALE WATCH TO
GALE WARNINGS STARTING MON, WITH A SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE LONE GALE
WATCH REMAINS OVER NERN COASTAL WATERS, WHERE GALE FORCE GUST
POTENTIAL IS MORE MARGINAL. GIVEN THE ONSET IS LATER IN THE DAY
MON, OPTED TO KEEP THE WATCH HERE TO GIVE DAYSHIFT ANOTHER CUT
AT THE WIND FORECAST TODAY. REMAINING INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS
HAVE HAD SCAS INTRODUCED FOR THE STRENGTHENING SERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF FROPA LATE MON. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON NIGHT UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND MON NIGHT'S FRONT AND
TUE'S REINFORCING FRONT. WATERSPOUT THREAT IN PLACE FOR CELLS
ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT LIFTING FORWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SUPERCELL POTENTIAL INCREASES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO MON, INCREASING RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. ANY OF MON'S STORMS
WITH EVEN MODEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. STRONGEST CELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 10-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE LATEWEEK EXPECTED TO INCREASE SWELL AND
COULD FURTHER THE NEED FOR EXTENDING SCAS THAT FOLLOW THE GALES
MON AND TUE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...CEB
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