959
FXUS62 KMHX 160022
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
822 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH CONFIDENCE CONTINUALLY INCREASING, HAVE ADDED IN A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING MON AFTERNOON
INTO MON EVENING.
HAVE ADDED WIND ADVISORIES FROM DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY NORTH
ALONG THE OBX TO OREGON INLET
MARINE: HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH ALONG THE NORTHERN WATERS
TO A GALE WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING BRINGS STRENGTHENING WINDS AND
AN INCREASINGLY LIKELY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
3) RETURN TO CHILLY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK. MINS
APPROACHING FREEZING TUES MORNING AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR FL/GA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. THIS WEAK LOW
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARDS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS ENC THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW AND FRONT NEAR AND TRACK ACROSS ENC, WARM
SECTORING THE CWA AND INCREASING DYNAMIC FORCING. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWARD, SE'RLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO A S'RLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST ANYWHERE
AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ADVECTING IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT. LATEST HREF PROBS SHOW A 60-80% CHANCE FOR SEEING
INSTABILITY VALUES AT OR ABOVE 500 J/KG TONIGHT ACROSS ENC WITH
CLOSER TO A 10-30% CHANCE OF SEEING OVER 1000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF ENC OUTSIDE OF THE CRYSTAL COAST AND
OBX WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY LIE.
PWATS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASING
TO 1-1.5 INCHES, AND WITH WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 25-35 KTS
AND SRH VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 100-150 M2S2 THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING A STRONGER STORM
BEING ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND OBX TONIGHT. STRONGEST STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL, THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER
AS ANY POTENTIAL WATERSPOUT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS COULD REACH THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND. THE STRENGTHENING
ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD SEAS,
WHICH WILL BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS
AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN PLACE.
BEACHES SUSCEPTIBLE TO A SE'RLY WAVE DIRECTION COULD BE AT RISK
FOR WAVE RUNUP ISSUES AND MAYBE OCEAN OVERWASH FOR PARTICULARLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS THE SAME, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING E'WARDS ON MONDAY
WHILE TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES E'WARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT
THE SURFACE, STRONG SURFACE LOW (SUB 990MB) WILL TRACK NE'WARDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE DAY PUSHING OFFSHORE MON NIGHT. FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SEVERAL ROUNDS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY ON MON.
THE FIRST CHANCE AT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE MON MORNING AS A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS EARLY AND THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL BRING OUR FIRST THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH STORM MODE LIKELY BEING IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINING
ELEVATED IN NATURE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING,
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO COULDN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL THEN REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES OF 60+ KTS, AND SRH VALUES INCREASING TO 200-300+
M2S2 MON AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROMOTE OUR SECOND ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH STORM MODES POTENTIALLY
BECOMING A MIX OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LINE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE
WEST. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY, STRONG LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
AND ELONGATING HODOGRAPHS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALL SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT, WHILE HAIL BEING A
LESSER THREAT WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR AND SRH, THERE IS A NOTABLE THREAT FOR A STRONGER TORNADO
OR TWO, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHERE THE BEST
JUXTAPOSITION OF SRH AND SHEAR AXES WILL LIKELY RESIDE.
MOVING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ONE FINAL ROUND OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS LINE WILL LEAD
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 75+ MPH, AND A QLCS TOR THREAT.
WHILE THIS IS A LOW THREAT AND NOT AS LIKELY OF AN OUTCOME, WOULD BE
REMISS IF WE DIDN'T MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY LOWER
SEVERE THREAT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. IF MORNING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD
COVER KEEP THE AREA IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
DAY, ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
THE MORNING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY, GIVEN THE KINEMATICS
ASSOCIATED WITH TOMORROWS EVENT, EVEN MEAGER INSTABILITY COULD
STILL PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS. BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER
END ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, THINK THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST OR HIGHER END THREAT WILL BE THE MORE
LIKELY TO VERIFY.
WITH THIS ALL IN MIND, SPC HAS KEPT THE ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED
IN AN ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A MODERATE
(4/5) RISK JUST TO OUR W FROM SC NWARD INTO VA, WHERE THE
GREATEST CHANCE DYNAMICS WILL COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING, AND
THEREFORE GREATEST CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY
VALUES TO FEED STORMS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTS LIKE THIS ARE UNCOMMON FOR MOST PARTS OF THE UNITED
STATES, LET ALONE EASTERN NC (THE LAST TWO DAY 2 MODERATE FOR
OUR FA WERE IN 2012 AND 2021), SO TOMORROW'S CONVECTIVE EPISODE
SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. USERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FORECASTS AND ENSURE MULTIPLE WAYS TO
RECEIVE WARNINGS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STOUT LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG BACKGROUND WIND-FIELD, AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN PLACED ACROSS DOWN EAST CARTERET, AND OBX
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON WITH BEACH EROSION AND
OCEAN OVERWASH REMAINING A CONCERN FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO S'RLY WAVE DIRECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE INITIAL BLAST OF CAA DIRECTLY BEHIND MON'S FRONT
WILL LEAD TO MINTS APPROACHING FREEZING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. A
SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ENC EARLY TUE WITH COLD
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING BEHIND IT. THE AFTERNOON'S CAA AND THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO
MINTS IN THE UPPER 20S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AREA, MID TO
UPPER 30S DOWNEAST AND OBX. AS A RESULT ANY PLANTING THAT HAS BEEN
DONE GIVEN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS AND ANY OUTDOOR PIPES MON NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT BEFORE WE GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM WED AND
BEYOND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
INCREASES TONIGHT AND COULD SEE ISOLATED STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO CLOSER TO THE COAST. SPC
HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE TONIGHT. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
BETWEEN 8-13Z BUT EXPECT SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO
MON. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ENC MONDAY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH SPC
PLACING ENC IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WESTERN
COASTAL PLAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
BEST CHANCES WOULD BE NOON TO 9 PM.
WINDS HAVE BECOME SLY AROUND 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND WILL SEE
LLWS CONCERNS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S WINDS WILL GUST
20-35 KT MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
E'RLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND SEAS HAVE
ALREADY BEGIN TO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AS
10-20 KT E'RLY BREEZES AND 20-30KT GUSTS ARE NOTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS, WHILE SEAS HAVE ALREADY BUILT TO 6-9FT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS ALREADY PLACES MUCH OF OUR WATERS
OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN SOUNDS AND INLAND RIVERS IN SCA CONDITIONS
WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE GO
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE S
AND LIFTS NWARD THROUGH AREA WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO CROSS FROM W TO E LATE MON/EARLY TUE. IN
RESPONSE TO ALL OF THIS, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER TO A SE AND
THEN S DIRECTION TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON MON
PEAKING MON EVENING/NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING 15-25KT
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT OVER SMALLER INLAND WATERS, AND
20-30KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND LARGER SOUNDS, WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS AT 30-35KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45KT. HAVE
KEPT ALL HAZARDS THE SAME WITH SIMILAR TIMING OUTSIDE OF THE ONE
GALE WATCH ALONG OUR NORTHERN WATERS. THIS WATCH WAS UPGRADED
TO A GALE WARNING GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT UNTIL DRIER AIR
ARRIVES BEHIND MON NIGHT'S FRONT AND TUE'S REINFORCING FRONT.
WATERSPOUT THREAT IN PLACE FOR CELLS ALONG AND NEAR THE WARM
FRONT LIFTING FORWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL INCREASES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON, INCREASING
RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. ANY OF MON'S STORMS WITH EVEN MODEST
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SFC. STRONGEST CELLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY, AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND CAMS WITH THE
NEED FOR A MARINE DFA.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 10-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE LATE WEEK EXPECTED TO INCREASE SWELL AND
COULD FURTHER THE NEED FOR EXTENDING SCAS THAT FOLLOW THE GALES
MON AND TUE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-
158.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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