379
FXUS62 KMHX 160721
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BEST CHANCES FOR SIG SEVERE FOR INTERIOR ENC WITH DAMAGING WIND
THREAT CONTINUING. MARINE LAYER MAY INHIBIT MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR MID WEEK AS COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE MID
FEBRUARY EXPECTED.
MARINE: HAVE UPGRADED REMAINING SOUNDS/RIVERS TO GALE WARNINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGS
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ZONES, THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
2) ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH COLDEST
AIRMASS SINCE MID FEBRUARY. MINS WELL DOWN BELOW FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS PARTS OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS ALL OF ENC UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF
5) WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND CONTINUING E'WARDS TODAY WHILE TAKING ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES E'WARD TOWARDS THE ERN SEABOARD. AT
THE SURFACE, STRONG SURFACE LOW (SUB 990MB) WILL TRACK NE'WARDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE DAY PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SEVERITY OF T'STORMS WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SUN = MORE INSTABILITY WHILE MORE
CLOUDS = LESS INSTABILITY.
DYNAMICS INCREASE TODAY AS STRONG 60-70 KT LLJ DEVELOPS INVOF
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING LOW.
STRONG ALBEIT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR TODAY IN THE RANGE OF
30-50 KT, COMBINED WITH SKINNY ML CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
INLAND, WITH CLOSER TO 300-500 J/KG COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO
MARINE LAYER, WILL LEND TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED. SEMI DISCREET CLUSTERS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, WHILE BOWING
LINE SEGMENTS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH GIVEN THE STRONG LLJ DYNAMICS IN PLACE. STRONGEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF HWY
17, AND THIS IS WHERE REFS PROPS ARE HIGHEST FOR A HIGHER END
(60-70 MPH) SEVERE POTENTIAL.
MOVING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, ONE FINAL ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS
MAY STILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION ALONG THE MAIN LINE ALONG THE
QUICKLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PRECIP SWEEPS QUICKLY
OFFSHORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE, GUSTS OF UP
TO 50 MPH STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE OBX AND DONWEAST CARTERET,
THOUGH EVEN REMAINING ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A WIND ADV IF WINDS COME UP A BIT MORE THAN
EXPECTED. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON WITH
BEACH EROSION AND OCEAN OVERWASH REMAINING A CONCERN FOR
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO S'RLY WAVE DIRECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE INITIAL BLAST OF CAA DIRECTLY BEHIND MON'S
FRONT WILL LEAD TO MINTS IN THE 30S, THOUGH ABOVE FREEZING AS
ATMS WILL BE MIXED WITH ONGOING CAA. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
TUE THROUGH THU. THE AFTERNOON'S CAA AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO
MINTS WELL DOWN IN THE 20S FOR MAINLAND AREAS, WITH 30S
DOWNEAST, BEACHFRONT, AND OBX NEARER THE WARMER WATERS. ANOTHER
SUBFREEZING NIGHT WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL NEARBY. AS A
RESULT ANY PLANTING THAT HAS BEEN DONE GIVEN OUR RECENT STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS
AND ANY OUTDOOR PIPES BEFORE WE WARM THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHALLENGING FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE GOOD NEWS
IS IFR FLIGHT CATS UNLIKELY THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE.
CURRENT OBS SHOW CLOUD BASES RANGE FROM FL015-040, BUT SKY COVER
RANGES FROM FEW TO OVC IN HIGHLY TRANSIENT CLOUDS RACING
GENERALLY FROM S TO N IN STRENGTHENING LLJ. EXPECTING TERMINALS
TO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF MVFR FL010
EARLY MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE. COULD SEE ISOLATED TSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 0800EST. LLWS MENTIONED THROUGHOUT THE
TAFS UNTIL FRONT GOES THROUGH THE FA FROM W TO E MON EVENING.
THIS VERY STRONG FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY SERLY WINDS (G30-40KT AT
TIMES) AHEAD OF IT, AND PERIODS OF MVFR FLIGHT CATS IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
SPC PLACING ENC IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
TSTORMS WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) W OF OUR LOCAL TAF
SITES. TSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL. BEST CHANCES WOULD
BE NOON TO 9 PM.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TURN NWERLY BUT FALL OFF DRASTICALLY
SPEEDWISE. UNEVENTFUL REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH TUE
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK-WEEK, KEEPING VFR FLIGHTS CATS IN PLACE.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM W TO E TONIGHT.
STRONG SRLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS FOR ALL
MARINE AREA OF ENC, AND THUS EXPANDED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
ZONES, MAINLY DUE TO AFTERNOON MIXING COINCIDING WITH STRONGEST
WIND FIELD AND GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE GUSTS EVEN ON THE INLAND
RIVERS AND SOUNDS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELD, A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN FORM
OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY, AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER THE WARMER SST'S OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS AND STRENGTHENING WIND SPEEDS WILL LIMIT SEA FOG CONCERNS.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 5-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE LATE WEEK EXPECTED TO INCREASE SWELL AND
COULD FURTHER THE NEED FOR EXTENDING SCAS THAT FOLLOW THE GALES
MON AND TUE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page