868
FXUS62 KMHX 161310
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
910 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BEST CHANCES FOR SIG SEVERE FOR INTERIOR ENC WITH DAMAGING WIND
THREAT CONTINUING. MARINE LAYER MAY INHIBIT MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES.
LOWERED TEMPS FOR MID WEEK AS COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE MID
FEBRUARY EXPECTED.
MARINE: HAVE UPGRADED REMAINING SOUNDS/RIVERS TO GALE WARNINGS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGS
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ZONES, THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
2) ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH COLDEST
AIRMASS SINCE MID FEBRUARY. MINS WELL DOWN BELOW FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 910 AM MON...WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A BLOSSOMING OF BROKEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. INSTABILITY IS MODEST IN THIS AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM, BUT GIVEN HEALTHY
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE AND A STRONG BACKGROUND WIND FIELD THIS
LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
40-45 MPH.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS THE SEVERE RISK WILL
INCREASE AS AXIS OF HIGHER SHEAR (40-50+ KT EFFECTIVE) AND
HELICITY (~150-250 M2/S2 0-1 KM) MIGRATES EASTWARD, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG. OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE ALREADY SHOW BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS HOUR, SO CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE ACHIEVED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NEAR-TERM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE POINTS
TO AN UPTICK IN TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND RISK IN THE 11AM-12PM
TIME PERIOD AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH 6-7PM WEST OF HIGHWAY
17 AND 9-10 PM FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
PREV DISC...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS PARTS OF ENC THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SPC HAS ALL OF ENC UNDER AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF
5) WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES.
OVERALL THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY AND CONTINUING E'WARDS TODAY WHILE TAKING ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES E'WARD TOWARDS THE ERN SEABOARD. AT
THE SURFACE, STRONG SURFACE LOW (SUB 990MB) WILL TRACK NE'WARDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
THE DAY PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
DYNAMICS INCREASE TODAY AS STRONG 60-70 KT LLJ DEVELOPS INVOF
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING LOW.
STRONG ALBEIT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR TODAY IN THE RANGE OF
30-50 KT, COMBINED WITH SKINNY ML CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG
INLAND, WITH CLOSER TO 300-500 J/KG COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO
MARINE LAYER, WILL LEND TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED. SEMI DISCREET CLUSTERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOES (A COUPLE
WHICH COULD BE ON THE STRONGER END) WHILE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONG
LLJ DYNAMICS IN PLACE. STRONGEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17, AND THIS IS WHERE REFS
PROPS ARE HIGHEST FOR A HIGHER END (75+ MPH) SEVERE POTENTIAL.
MOVING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, ONE FINAL ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WANING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THOUGH STRONG
WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION ALONG THE MAIN LINE ALONG
THE QUICKLY EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PRECIP SWEEPS QUICKLY
OFFSHORE WITH THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE, GUSTS OF UP
TO 50 MPH STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE OBX AND DOWN EAST CARTERET,
THOUGH EVEN REMAINING ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A WIND ADV IF WINDS COME UP A BIT MORE THAN
EXPECTED. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON WITH
BEACH EROSION AND OCEAN OVERWASH REMAINING A CONCERN FOR
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO S'RLY WAVE DIRECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE INITIAL BLAST OF CAA DIRECTLY BEHIND MON'S
FRONT WILL LEAD TO MINTS IN THE 30S, THOUGH ABOVE FREEZING AS
ATMS WILL BE MIXED WITH ONGOING CAA. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
TUE THROUGH THU. THE AFTERNOON'S CAA AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO
MINTS WELL DOWN IN THE 20S FOR MAINLAND AREAS, WITH 30S
DOWNEAST, BEACHFRONT, AND OBX NEARER THE WARMER WATERS. ANOTHER
SUBFREEZING NIGHT WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL NEARBY. AS A
RESULT ANY PLANTING THAT HAS BEEN DONE GIVEN OUR RECENT STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS
AND ANY OUTDOOR PIPES BEFORE WE WARM THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. LLWS MENTIONED
THROUGHOUT THE TAFS UNTIL STRONG COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE FA
FROM W TO E THIS EVENING. THIS VERY STRONG FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY SERLY WINDS (G30-40KT AT TIMES) AHEAD OF IT, AND PERIODS
OF MVFR FLIGHT CATS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH SPC PLACING ENC IN AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE TSTORMS WITH A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5)
W OF OUR LOCAL TAF SITES. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30S FOR PREFRONTAL
TSTORM RISK. TSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL. BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE NOON TO 2100EST. A LINE OF STORMS DIRECTLY ALONG THE
FRONT POSES THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR SUBVFR DUE TO CIGS AND
VIS. PRECIP THREAT ENDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS
TURNING WERLY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY CALMING. SOME MVFR CIGS COULD
LINGER FOR ~AN HR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL QUICKLY CLEAR TO SKC
BEHIND THAT.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TURN WNWERLY BUT FALL OFF DRASTICALLY
SPEEDWISE. UNEVENTFUL REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH TUE
AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK-WEEK, KEEPING VFR FLIGHTS CATS IN PLACE.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM W TO E TONIGHT.
STRONG SRLY GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS FOR ALL
MARINE AREA OF ENC, AND THUS EXPANDED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
ZONES, MAINLY DUE TO AFTERNOON MIXING COINCIDING WITH STRONGEST
WIND FIELD AND GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE GUSTS EVEN ON THE INLAND
RIVERS AND SOUNDS. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELD, A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN FORM
OF GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY, AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE COMBINED WITH
ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER THE WARMER SST'S OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS AND STRENGTHENING WIND SPEEDS WILL LIMIT SEA FOG CONCERNS.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 5-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE LATE WEEK EXPECTED TO INCREASE SWELL AND
COULD FURTHER THE NEED FOR EXTENDING SCAS THAT FOLLOW THE GALES
MON AND TUE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-092-094-194>196-198-199-
203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ131-136-137-230-231.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156-
158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL
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