012
FXUS62 KMHX 162019
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
419 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR EASTERN NC THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
BEST CHANCES FOR SIG SEVERE FOR ALL ENC WITH DAMAGING WIND
THREAT CONTINUING. RISK FOR TORNADOES (INCLUDING A FEW
POTENTIALLY STRONG) REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
2) ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH COLDEST
AIRMASS SINCE MID FEBRUARY. MINS WELL DOWN BELOW FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
MARINE...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 420 PM...
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES AND WATERS THROUGH 8 PM
TONIGHT. IMPRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKING SHAPE WITH HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED NEUTRAL- TILT TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
GULF STATES FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC IS DRIVING A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC, AND THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING, PUSHING WELL
OFFSHORE INTO TUES MORNING.
CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS OUR REGION IS INCREASINGLY MESSY AND
MAKING IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MORE DISCREET CELLS
AND THEREFORE A PROMINENT TORNADO THREAT. THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR MORE DISCREET DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ALBEMARLE PENINSULA AND OUTER BANKS. OTHERWISE,
THE TORNADO RISK WILL TRANSITION MORE TO QLCS AS A STRONGLY
FORCED LINE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FRONT.
BECAUSE OF ALL THE STABILIZATION FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S
CONVECTION, THE ODDS FOR A MORE ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE IS DECREASING. DESPITE THE LACK OF BUOYANCY,
THE KINEMATICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE COULD STILL SUPPORT
STRONGER WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS THAT
DEVELOP.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELD IN PLACE, GUSTS OF UP
TO 45- 50 MPH STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE OBX AND DOWN EAST
CARTERET, THOUGH EVEN REMAINING ADJACENT COASTAL COUNTIES WILL
SEE WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES BORDERING SOUNDS AND THE
COAST THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MON WITH BEACH EROSION AND OCEAN OVERWASH
REMAINING A CONCERN FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
S'RLY WAVE DIRECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE INITIAL BLAST OF CAA DIRECTLY BEHIND MON'S
FRONT WILL LEAD TO MINTS IN THE 30S, THOUGH ABOVE FREEZING AS
ATMS WILL BE MIXED WITH ONGOING CAA. ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
TUE THROUGH THU. THE AFTERNOON'S CAA AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SETTLING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PRIME THE FA FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO
MINTS WELL DOWN IN THE 20S FOR MAINLAND AREAS, WITH 30S
DOWNEAST, BEACHFRONT, AND OBX NEARER THE WARMER WATERS. ANOTHER
SUBFREEZING NIGHT WED NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES STILL NEARBY. AS A
RESULT ANY PLANTING THAT HAS BEEN DONE GIVEN OUR RECENT STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS
AND ANY OUTDOOR PIPES BEFORE WE WARM THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR ONGOING AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. PRED SUB-VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPO IFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE
THE THREATS FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z. SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, AND WILL KEEP
LLWS MENTIONED UNTIL STRONG COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH THE FA FROM
W TO E THIS EVENING. PRECIP THREAT ENDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING WERLY BUT DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY.
SOME MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER FOR ~AN HR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR TO SKC BEHIND THAT.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNEVENTFUL REINFORCING COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH TUE AND HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK, KEEPING VFR FLIGHTS CATS IN PLACE.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS FROM W TO E TONIGHT.
STRONG SRLY GRADIENT WILL FURTHER INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH GALE GUSTS FOR ALL MARINE AREA OF ENC, AND THUS
EXPANDED GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL ZONES, MAINLY DUE TO AFTERNOON
MIXING COINCIDING WITH STRONGEST WIND FIELD AND GUSTS EXCEEDING
GALE GUSTS EVEN ON THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG BACKGROUND WIND FIELD, A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN FORM OF GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW
WATERSPOUTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND
OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: WINDS BECOME N-NERLY MID-WEEK BEHIND TUE'S REINFORCING
FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY 5-15G20KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. SEA-DRIVEN SCAS LIKELY TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO WED
MORNING, CONTINUING TO IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE LATE WEEK EXPECTED TO INCREASE SWELL AND
COULD FURTHER THE NEED FOR EXTENDING SCAS THAT FOLLOW THE GALES
MON AND TUE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ046-047-080-
081-092-094-194>196-198-199-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-136-137-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135-150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/MS
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...TL/MS
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