051
FXUS62 KMHX 171130
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MID WEEK.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH COLDEST
AIRMASS SINCE MID FEBRUARY. MINS WELL DOWN BELOW FREEZING ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
2) EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AND CONTINUE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC.
MARINE...SLOWLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TODAY THROUGH THU.
THE AFTERNOON'S CAA AND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLING ALMOST
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO CLEARING
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PRIME THE FA FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, LEADING TO MINTS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S FOR MAINLAND AREAS, WITH 30S DOWNEAST, BEACHFRONT,
AND OBX NEARER THE WARMER WATERS. HAVE GONE WITH A NBM 10% AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ANY PLANTING THAT HAS BEEN
DONE GIVEN OUR RECENT STRETCH OF WARM WEATHER SHOULD TAKE
PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS AND ANY OUTDOOR PIPES
BEFORE WE MODERATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE IN THE EXTENDED, LEADING
TO LITTLE RELIEF FOR THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE LOW EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THOUGH WITH THE RECENT RAINS, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME FEW-SCT
FAIRWEATHER CU ~FL050-070 AND SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. DIMINISHING NWERLY WINDS ~10G15KT THIS
MORNING BECOME MORE WERLY AOB 10KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK.
MARINE
GALES HAVE DIMINISHED TO SCA LEVEL WINDS AS WRLY CAA WINDS GUST
UPWARDS OF 25-30 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONT TO ABATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN, THOUGH HIGH SEAS
WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT AND WED MORNING AS SEAS ONLY SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. SOME REINFORCING SWELL MAY CONT SCA SEAS THROUGH WED
EVENING ESP ON THE CTRL AND NRN WATERS (NORTH OF OCRACOKE).
OUTLOOK (THU THROUGH SAT): HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH GENERALLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ135>137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL
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