935
FXUS62 KMHX 172345
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET
AND OCRACOKE INLET HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 PM TOMORROW
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
2) DRY WITH A WARMING TREND LATE-WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY
3) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT'S BUILDING IN BEHIND
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND SEND LOWS INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
TOMORROW, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. WE'LL HAVE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE AROUND
FREEZING FOR INLAND ZONES AND LOW 40S FOR THE BEACHES. GIVEN THAT
WE'VE HAD SEVERAL WARM DAYS RECENTLY, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT ANY VULNERABLE PLANTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM FROM LATE-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S INLAND AND LOW 50S AT THE BEACHES. BY SUNDAY, INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH THE
BEACHES REACHING THE MID 60S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN <10% THROUGH LATE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OUR NEXT FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THIS
SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, AND THEN PERIODS OF HIGH BASED
CLOUDS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK.
MARINE
NW WINDS AT 10-15 KT WILL VEER TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT. DIAMOND SHOALS IS THE ONLY BUOY THAT CONTINUES TO
REPORT 6 FT BUT MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 6 FT BY LATER TODAY. WITH
THE UPTICK IN WINDS TONIGHT, SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO 6 FT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND MAY LINGER INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE INLET HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 PM
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NE BY MID-MORNING
AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KT.
OUTLOOK: GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15 KT
WITH 2-5 FT SEAS. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SCAS WILL BE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...OJC
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...OJC
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