923
FXUS62 KMHX 181144
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
744 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MIN TEMPS THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS (THROUGH THU MORNING)
LOWERED TD'S (AND RESULTANT MIN RH'S) THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING
FOR MOST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2) DRY WITH A WARMING TREND LATE-WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY
3) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES INC TO 30-40%.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
AGAIN DIP TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE (NBM10) AS DRY HIGH PRES
WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT WE'VE HAD VERY WARM TEMPS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO
PROTECT ANY VULNERABLE PLANTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM FROM LATE-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND OR
TO ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (LOW
50S OBX). BY THIS WEEKEND, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH THE BEACHES REACHING THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN <15% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WHILE DRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LOW DUE TO BENIGN WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES DOMINATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OUR NEXT FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A RESULTANT COOLDOWN BEHIND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH AFOREMENTIONED NNERLY WIND SURGE, ESP
NEAR THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE 30-40% RANGE
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FROPA.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. PERIODS
OF INCONSEQUENTIAL HIGH BASED CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY AND NIGHT.
NERLY WINDS BECOME MORE NEERLY IN AFTERNOON, CALMING OVERNIGHT.
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT STILL VFR, EXPECTED ALONG OBX TERMINALS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK.
MARINE
THE NWRLY REINFORCING SURGE HAS BROUGHT WINDS BACK UP INTO THE
15-20 KT RANGE, BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE CTRL COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE INLET,
WHERE OCNL SEAS OF 6 FT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL
DEC THROUGH THE DAY TODAY TO 5-15 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND): GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15 KT WITH 2-5 FT SEAS. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SCAS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH NERLY WINDS INC TO
20-30 KT AND SEAS 6+ FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...TL/OJC
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL/OJC
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