852
FXUS62 KMHX 181842
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
OREGON INLET AND OCRACOKE INLET UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY
ADDED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OREGON INLET UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING 6 FT SEAS
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS
2) DRY WITH A WARMING TREND LATE-WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY
3) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POST FRONTAL RAIN CHANCES INC TO 30-40%.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW. TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOWS TOMORROW MORNING WILL AGAIN DIP TO THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT WE'VE HAD VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS, PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY VULNERABLE PLANTS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM FROM LATE-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (LOW 50S OBX).
BY THIS WEEKEND, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S WITH THE BEACHES REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN <25% THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH WE'LL REMAIN DRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LOW DUE TO BENIGN WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OUR NEXT FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
RESULTANT COOLDOWN BEHIND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. POPS REMAIN IN THE
30-40% RANGE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FROPA.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY CONTINUE PERIODICALLY INTO
THU.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START VEERING TO THE EAST AND DECREASE TO
5-10 KT. THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DUCK TO OCRACOKE INLET
CONTINUE TO OBSERVE 6 FT SEAS. 6 FT SEAS NORTH OF OREGON INLET
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS. THEREFORE, A SHORT-FUSE SCA HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET (UNTIL 8 PM
TONIGHT) AND THE SCA FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 8 PM TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND): GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10-20 KT WITH 2-5 FT SEAS. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR SCAS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO
20-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6+ FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...TL/OJC
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...TL/OJC
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