991
FXUS62 KMHX 190713
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MIN TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING
LOWERED DEWPOINTS/MINIMUM RH THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATING TREND STARTS TODAY, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES INC TO 30-40%, THOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM FROM LATE-WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO AROUND OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (LOW 50S
OBX). BY THIS WEEKEND, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH THE BEACHES REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT, AND 20% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE, DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY
IS THE WARMEST DAY JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT
FROM THE NORTH, WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80-85 RANGE INTERIOR
ZONES (70S COAST). FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LOW, DESPITE THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A RESULTANT COOLDOWN. POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-40% RANGE ON
MONDAY WITH THIS FROPA. ECM SOLUTION REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE,
WITH SCANT QPF FORECAST. CMC/GFS ARE A BIT WETTER, THOUGH EVEN
THE WETTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT FCST MUCH QPF (<0.25") AS THE GOM
WILL NOT BE TAPPED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPS RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FROPA TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT N/NE
WINDS. SKIES WILL BE A MIX OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CLOUDBASES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 10
KFT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT, BUT WITH MID/UPPER CLOUDS IN
AND OUT PAIRED WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS, NOT EXPECTING FOG
CONCERNS TONIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT, WE HAVE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S. EXPECTING THE NEAR SURFACE
LEVEL TO BE DRY, SO FOG IS UNLIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...PRED VFR FLIGHT CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS GUSTIER WINDS, CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST. WITH THIS
FRONT, SOME SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
MARGINAL SCA DUE TO 6 FT SEAS WILL CONT TODAY ACRS THE OUTER
CTRL WATERS (OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE INLET). THE NERLY SWELL
SUBSIDES TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT (5 FT OUTER
WATERS S OF C HATTERAS). NRLY BREEZE 5-15 KT TODAY WILL DIMINISH
TO LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT, THEN VEER TO S TO SE ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES EAST AND OFF THE COAST, BUT WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY):
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-15 KT WITH 2-5 FT
SEAS. ON MONDAY, SWRLY GRADIENT INC WITH 10-20 KT WINDS
EXPECTED, WITH SOME 25+ KT POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM WATERS,
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE MON
WITH SOLID SCA NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE, WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO
6+ FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...TL/OJC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...TL/OJC
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