656
FXUS62 KMHX 191753
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
153 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.
2) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING, THOUGH RAIN AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECAST THINKING AS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. S-SW'RLY WINDS
SET UP AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND 80S INLAND AND
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE OBX FRI-MON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP ALLOWING MUCH OF THE AREA TO
GET INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, BUT LOWS THEN WARM THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SCHC POPS REMAIN IN PLACE, MAINLY ALONG
OUR NORTHERN TIER WHERE BEST FORCING IS LOCATED. OTHERWISE, DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY IS THE WARMEST DAY JUST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT FROM THE NORTH, WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
80-85 RANGE INTERIOR ZONES (70S COAST). FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LOW, DESPITE THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC MON INTO TUE BRINGING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THERE IS THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY
WITH FRONTAL TIMING AND HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE, WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE QUICKEST WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON WITH THE GFS AND CMC MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY MON NIGHT. FOR NOW LET POP'S INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO THE 40-50% RANGE, BUT THIS COULD BE OUR HIGH POP LOW QPF SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT NOT ALOT OF RAIN OVERALL OUTCOME. IN ADDITION
TO THIS, WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER IN THE DAY SUCH AS THE GFS/CMC
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD
AND WITH STRONGER FORCING WITH THE FRONT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOONER ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FROPA TOWARDS MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS, BECOMING E TO NE
THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BRING GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BUT FOG POTENTIAL LOW WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CROSSOVER TEMPS BELOW FORECAST LOWS. HREF
AND REFS PROBS ARE LESS THAN 20% FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING FRONT AND WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS GUSTIER WINDS, CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUB-VFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE CERTAINLY OVER-PREFORMED TODAY AND HAVE SINCE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS WITH WIDESPREAD NE'RLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20
KTS WITH 25 KT GUSTS OUT ALONG THE GULF STREAM WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS HAVE GENERALLY PERSISTED AT
ABOUT 3-5 FT, THOUGH SOME 4-7 FT SEAS REMAIN NOTED ALONG THE
OUTERWATERS BETWEEN OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE INLET. AS A RESULT,
STILL HAVE AN ONGOING SCAS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL WATERS. WHILE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING, DOWN TO ABOUT 5-10
KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES SEAS WONT CHANGE MUCH
GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 3-5 FT ALONG MOST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS
WITH SOME 4-6 FT SEAS NOTED ALONG THE OUTER WATERS BETWEEN OREGON
INLET AND OCRACOKE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
ON FRI, EVENTUALLY BECOMING S'RLY WHILE SEAS DO FINALLY LOWER TO 2-4
FT ALONG OUR COASTAL WATER THUS ENDING THE LAST OF THE SCA'S ACROSS
OUR COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY): A WEAK FRONT NEARS THE AREA,
STALLS, AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND POTENTIALLY
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
AS SW'RLY WINDS INCREASE. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
THREAT, BUT EITHER WAY ANY SCA WINDS/SEAS WOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE
EVEN IF THEY DID OCCUR. ON MONDAY, SW WIND INCREASE WITH 10-20 KT
WINDS EXPECTED, WITH SOME 25+ KT POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM WATERS,
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE MON WITH
SOLID SCA NORTHERLY SURGE OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH
MON NIGHT INTO TUE, WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING TO 6+ FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RCF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page