120
FXUS62 KMHX 200713
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
313 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN PROBABILITIES HAVE DECREASED FOR MONDAY WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW SHOWERS DOT THE AREA TONIGHT WITH BACKDOOR COOL FRONT
SINKING SOUTH THROUGH ENC.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
3) NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY WITH PRECIP
PERCENTAGES DECREASING TO 20-30% WITH THIS UPDATE. RAIN AMOUNTS
APPEAR TRIVIAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS TODAY AS SFC HIGH EDGES
OFFSHORE AND FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT THROUGH ENC. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT, AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE 20-30% RANGE, HIGHEST
ACRS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE BETTER FORCING IS LOCATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECAST THINKING AS WE
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW, ALBEIT ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS, SETTING UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE WARMEST DAYS, REACHING WELL
INTO THE 80S INTERIOR ZONES (70S COAST). FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LOW, DESPITE THE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER UPPER TROUGHING THEN
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC MON BRINGING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. 20/00Z MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED ON TIMING WITH FROPA, ALL BRINGING IT THROUGH BETWEEN
18-00Z MON AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE DECREASED WITH THIS UPDATE, AS
THE FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AND GOM CUT OFF. INSTABILITY IS
NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE, AND THUNDER REMOVED FROM
FCST. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A RAPID
INCREASE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT WITH TEMPS DROPPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BUT FOG POTENTIAL LOW (PROBABILITY < 10%) WITH A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CROSSOVER TEMPS BELOW FORECAST LOWS.
MAYBE WE SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG BRINGING OBS DOWN AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT IT WILL BE NON-IMPACTFUL AND FLEETING. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
WEAKENING FRONT AND WILL SEE LOWERING CIGS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...A CHANCE OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS GUSTIER WINDS, CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SUB- VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SEAS CONT TO SUBSIDE, AND WILL RETIRE THE SCA AT 9AM THIS
MORNING AS THE NERLY SWELL SUBSIDES BELOW 6 FT IN SEVERAL HOURS.
TODAY, HIGH PRES EDGES OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH RAPIDLY ESP
NEARSHORE AS INLAND HEATING COMMENCES AND INITIATES THE
SEA/SOUND/RIVER BREEZES. SPEEDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE,
CLOSER TO 5 KT OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE HIGH. SEAS CONT TO SUBSIDE
TO 2-4 FT. TONIGHT, WITH HIGH SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE, SWRLY
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, THOUGH A
BIT HIGHER AND CLOSER TO 20 KT OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS.
MARGINAL SCA GUSTS (25KT) ARE POSSIBLE HERE LATER TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING
NERLY BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS THEN TURN SWRLY ON
SUNDAY ONCE AGAIN. ON MONDAY, SW WIND INCREASE WITH 10-20 KT
WINDS EXPECTED, WITH SOME 25+ KT POSSIBLE ON THE GULF STREAM
WATERS, AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT PASSES THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON WITH STOUT 20-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE, WITH SEAS RAPIDLY BUILDING
TO 6+ FT BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY ON THE GULF WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...TL
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