020
FXUS62 KMHX 241136
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH MID-MORNING FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH THROUGH
SURF CITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE INLAND
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT ENC LATE-WEEK
MARINE: ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THIS
EVENING. GALE-FORCE WINDS TO LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS NOW FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND
IS CHARACTERIZED BY NOTABLY COOL LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. THIS
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT HARD
FOR HIGHS TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. THIS IS A SOLID 20-30 DEGREES
COLDER THAN YESTERDAY! THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
TRICKY TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST PERIODS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, A NOTABLY STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL
LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOW WIDESPREAD THE CLOUDS ARE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FACTOR INTO
HOW COLD IT GETS. GIVEN THE HIGHER LEVEL NATURE OF THE CLOUDS,
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT, BUT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY MUTED. IN LIGHT OF THIS, AND THE LOWER THAN NORMAL
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES, I WENT BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLDER INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 30S, WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDCOVER,
WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT ENC IS SLATED FOR
LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD- ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER, THOUGH, AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH
COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OF NOTE, THERE MAY A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTS THROUGH
ABOUT 13Z BEFORE MIXING LEADS TO GUSTY WINDS QUICKLY
REDEVELOPING. A NARROW BAND OF LOW VFR CIGS HAS DEVELOPED OFF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THIS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF ENC THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW VFR.
OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
TO ADVECT INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC AT TIMES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME IS LOW
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, AND HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH ENC LATE FRIDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SCT SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA, AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT.
ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY WHERE SHRA DEVELOP.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL WATERS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FOR SOME OF THE
WARMEST WATERS, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS,
THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO LAY DOWN DURING THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS WILL FURTHER LAY DOWN TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN
THE SLOWER LAY DOWN OF WINDS, THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
OUT A FEW EXTRA HOURS THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET SOUTH THROUGH SURF CITY.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 6-10FT ARE FORECAST TO LAST
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SLOWLY LAY DOWN TO 3-5FT BY
TONIGHT. FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS CLOSEST TO THE CRYSTAL COAST,
SEAS OF 4-6FT THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO LAY DOWN TO 2-4FT BY
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MUCH IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT
ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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