343
FXUS62 KMHX 242240
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL INLAND COUNTIES.
SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST
EXPECTED INLAND
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT ENC LATE-WEEK
MARINE: ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
HOW WIDESPREAD THE CLOUDS ARE TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FACTOR INTO
HOW COLD IT GETS. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OUT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING BACK IN AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. IN LIGHT OF THIS, AND THE LOWER THAN NORMAL LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES, CONTINUED TO FORECAST TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW BLENDED GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLDER
INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME AREAS DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S, WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE INLAND ZONE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT ENC IS SLATED FOR
LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD- ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER, THOUGH, AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH
COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WIND GUSTS
WILL EASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS TO ADVECT INLAND
OFF THE ATLANTIC AT TIMES WEDNESDAY, WITH BASES LIKELY REMAINING
ABOVE 4 KFT.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY ALLOW SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
TO ADVECT INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC AT TIMES INTO THURSDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-VFR CIGS DURING THIS TIME IS LOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH ENC LATE FRIDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF
SCT SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA, AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT.
ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY WHERE SHRA DEVELOP.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN
SLIDES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. STILL SEEING STRONG N TO NE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT AND
SEAS UP TO 6-9 FT. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO DIMINISH
THEN GUIDANCE SHOWING BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH MORE
EARNESTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALLOWED THE GALE WARNING TO
EXPIRE BUT CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE
PAMLICO RIVER UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCA WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS
REMAINING ELEVATED.
OUTLOOK: MUCH IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT
ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>092-193-198.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...SK
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