599
FXUS62 KMHX 250641
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
241 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS DROPPED FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT CENTRAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FROST THREAT REMAINS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WELL SHELTERED
AREAS
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT ENC LATE-WEEK
MARINE: ELEVATED SEAS FOR CENTRAL WATERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK. NEXT ROUND OF SCA AND POTENTIALLY GALES WITH LATE-WEEK
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, COMBINATION OF
STEADY TRAIN OF CIRRI ALOFT AND STUBBORN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IS LIKELY INHIBITING MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION.
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL STILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR CALM WINDS AND THEREFORE SOME FROST FORMATION PRE-DAWN, BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED TO WELL SHELTERED AREAS.
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR NOW, BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL EARLY CANCELLATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT ENC IS SLATED FOR
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHWARD- ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER, THOUGH, AND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SAVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH COOLER, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW
FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF PERIODS OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, THE ONLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL
COME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT AROUND 4000-6000 FT BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SKIRT
THE COAST AND OUTER BANKS AS MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT, BUT
EVEN THERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH ENC LATE
FRIDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS
RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCT SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA,
AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WHERE SHRA
DEVELOP.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER AREA WATERS THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS STILL HOLDING ON
ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS WITH GUSTS JUST ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS
HOVERING AROUND 6-7 FEET. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS ALL
OTHER OFFSHORE WATERS AND SCA HEADLINES HERE HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
GIVEN THE STUBBORNNESS OF SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS, OPTED TO EXTEND SCAS HERE INTO MID-MORNING. BENIGN
BOATING CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: MUCH IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS EXTEND INTO THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WINDS
AND SEAS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY POST-
FRONTAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>046-
079>081-090>092-193-198.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SK/MS
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