623
FXUS62 KMHX 251817
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
217 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCAS DROPPED FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ENC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MARINE: NEXT ROUND OF SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT ENC IS SLATED FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER, THOUGH, AND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NBM PROBS CURRENTLY
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES UP TO 70% ACROSS
WESTERN MARTIN CO.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH EWN MAY SEE SOME SUBVFR DUE TO A SMOKE PLUME FROM A
PRESCRIBED BURN UPRIVER OF THE NEUSE FOR AN HR OR SO. BECAUSE OF
THIS, HAVE ADDED A 1HR TEMPO GROUP FOR EWN WITH IFR VIS AND A
CIG
SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE WEAK COASTAL
TROUGHING THAT WAS OFFSHORE PUSHES INLAND WHILE DISSIPATING.
OUTSIDE OF PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, THE ONLY LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
~FL040-060, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SKIRT THE COAST AND OUTER BANKS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT, BUT EVEN THERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE
CALMING WINDS, FAIRLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT SKIES, AND ADDED MOISTURE
FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING AND IS HIGHLIGHTING THE
ENTIRE FA AS HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SELECT MODELS SHOWCASE VLIFR VIS CONDITIONS WITH THIS FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT ALL ISN'T VERY HIGH, LET ALONE THAT DENSE. BECAUSE OF THIS,
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING MVFR VIS LINE FOR COASTAL TAF SITES
WHERE THE CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST, AND A VFR MINOR FOG
PREVAILING LINE WITH A TEMPO MVFR VIS GROUP FOR INLAND SITES. IF
FOG DOES DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, IT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THU
MORNING LEADING TO VFR FLIGHT CATS AND STRENGTHENING SWERLY FLOW
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH ENC LATE
FRIDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS
RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCT SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA,
AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WHERE SHRA
DEVELOP.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH RESIDES ALONG THE COAST. CURRENTLY SEEING
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES WITH
SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT. S TO SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING THE
NEARSHORE AND INSIDE WATERS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH PUSHING ASHORE WHILE
IT DISSIPATES. I HAVE ADDED 3-5MI VIS FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THU
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUB 1MI VIS AS ADVERTISED BY SELECT
MODELS IS LOW.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/MS
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