616
FXUS62 KMHX 260448
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1248 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ENC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MARINE: NEXT ROUND OF SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT ENC IS SLATED FOR
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER, THOUGH, AND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). OVERALL
MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH
AVERAGE AMOUNTS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NBM PROBS CURRENTLY
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES UP TO 70% ACROSS
WESTERN MARTIN CO.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS ENC. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION
LATER THIS MORNING, BUT RECENT TRENDS IN BOTH GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS, CAST SOME DOUBT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. ELEVATED
WINDS AND PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS HAVE KEPT TEMPS MILD
SO FAR TONIGHT, WITH DECREASING CHANCES WE MEET THE NECESSARY
CROSSOVER TEMPS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. NEVERTHELESS, SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF PATCHY MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE US 17 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY.
SOON AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG THAT'S FORMED WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF,
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 MPH
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH ENC LATE
FRIDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS
RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCT SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA,
AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WHERE SHRA
DEVELOP.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE HAS PUSHED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH RESIDES ALONG THE COAST. CURRENTLY SEEING
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES WITH
SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT. S TO SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. PESSIMISTIC GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING THE
NEARSHORE AND INSIDE WATERS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH PUSHING ASHORE WHILE
IT DISSIPATES. I HAVE ADDED 3-5MI VIS FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THU
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUB 1MI VIS AS ADVERTISED BY SELECT
MODELS IS LOW.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SK/MS
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