916
FXUS62 KMHX 260703
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCA ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PASSING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
ENC FRIDAY.
2) FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE: SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. STRONG SCA TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG BUT SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH (UP TO 1-2
SIGMA), AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY REBOUND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, HITTING UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY AND UPPER
80S INLAND ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL THREATEN MULTIPLE
RECORDS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD- ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 70. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER WITH LESS
THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). OVERALL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS SAVE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NBM PROBS CURRENTLY
AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES UP TO 70% ACROSS
WESTERN MARTIN CO.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS ENC. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION
LATER THIS MORNING, BUT RECENT TRENDS IN BOTH GUIDANCE AND
OBSERVATIONS, CAST SOME DOUBT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. ELEVATED
WINDS AND PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS HAVE KEPT TEMPS MILD
SO FAR TONIGHT, WITH DECREASING CHANCES WE MEET THE NECESSARY
CROSSOVER TEMPS FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. NEVERTHELESS, SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF PATCHY MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE, WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG
THE US 17 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY.
SOON AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG THAT'S FORMED WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF,
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 4000-5000 FT
RANGE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 15-25 MPH
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH ENC LATE
FRIDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SIMILAR TO THIS
RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCT SHRA, ISOLATED TSRA,
AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. SUB
VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WHERE SHRA
DEVELOP.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY 5-10 KT, BUT CLOSER
TO 15 KT OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS ARE SITTING AT
AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 10-11 SECONDS. S TO SW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE REMAINS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR
SOME SEA FOG TOMORROW MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER RELATIVELY COOL NEAR-SHORE WATERS WHERE H20 TEMPS REMAIN IN
THE 40S AND 50S, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
THE NEXT ROUND OF IMPACTFUL WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCA HEADLINES WERE ISSUED FOR ALL
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING, AND FURTHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR SOUNDSIDE WATERS IN FOLLOWING SHIFTS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN START TIMES FOR ONSLOW BAY AND THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS WHERE COOLER WATER TEMPS MAY TEMPER MORE ROBUST MIXING,
BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE WAS ELEVATED ENOUGH (50-60% CHANCE) TO
JUSTIFY ISSUING ADVISORIES.
OUTLOOK: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
STAGNANT PATTERN TAKES HOLD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/27 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 88/1929 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 77/1989 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 88/1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...MS
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