965
FXUS62 KMHX 262326
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
726 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A SCA FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
ENC FRIDAY.
2) FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE: SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG BUT SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE MARCH (UP TO 1-2 SIGMA), WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND ON FRIDAY, WHICH
MAY THREATEN A FEW RECORDS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 70. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER WITH LESS
THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). OVERALL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER
INCH WITH SOME HIRES MODELS SHOWING UP TO A HALF INCH. HIGHEST
AMOUNT STILL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LATEST NBM PROBS
SHOWING GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON, WITH SUB-
VFR CHANCES INCREASING FRI EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUST TO 15-20 KT OVERNIGHT INTO THU. PERIOD
OF LLWS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SWERLY WINDS
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DIURNAL CU AOA FL040. WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO NNE ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AND SCT SHOWERS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT FRI EVE.
OUTLOOK: THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
SIMILAR TO THIS RECENT FRONT, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SCT SHRA,
ISOLATED TSRA, AND A NOTABLE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A RISK OF 20-35KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND
THE FRONT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
WHERE SHRA DEVELOP WITH CIGS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO MVFR AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY.
MARINE
CURRENTLY SEEING SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
STRONGEST CAA WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY WHEN GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 6-10+ FT PEAKING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED
AN SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT IN PRE-FRONTAL
SW WINDS. ALSO ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
OUTLOOK: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/27 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 88/1929 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 77/1989 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 88/1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...SK/MS
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