353
FXUS62 KMHX 270506
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
106 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A SCA FOR THE RIVERS AND SOUNDS. ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
ENC FRIDAY.
2) FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE: SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG BUT SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE MARCH (UP TO 1-2 SIGMA), WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND ON FRIDAY, WHICH
MAY THREATEN A FEW RECORDS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, FOCUSED
MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 70. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER WITH LESS
THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). OVERALL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER
INCH WITH SOME HIRES MODELS SHOWING UP TO A HALF INCH. HIGHEST
AMOUNT STILL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LATEST NBM PROBS
SHOWING GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH FAIR WEATHER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS. LLWS CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY REACHING KPGV AND
KISO EARLY THIS EVENING, AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER REACHING KEWN
AND KOAJ. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 1500-2500 FT EARLY TONIGHT, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL DIP TO 1000-1500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN CEILING HEIGHT (AND IFR CONDITIONS) POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OUT OF THE NE AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MARINE
CURRENTLY SEEING SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4
FT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-25 KT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
STRONGEST CAA WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY WHEN GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 6-10+ FT PEAKING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED
AN SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND FOR GUSTS TO 25 KT IN PRE-FRONTAL
SW WINDS. ALSO ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND.
OUTLOOK: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/27 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 88/1929 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 77/1989 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 88/1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SK/MS
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