284
FXUS62 KMHX 270654
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
254 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
ENC TODAY.
2) FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT SEVERE RISK
IS LOW.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE: SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
PROBABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG BUT SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE MARCH (UP TO 1-2 SIGMA), WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. THIS WILL
THREATEN A FEW RECORD HIGHS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, FOCUSED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 70. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK
MEAGER WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE AND RATHER STUBBORN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). FURTHER INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IS THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COOLER, MORE STABLE
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST A RISK OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS IS
JUXTAPOSED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UNINHIBITED CAPE MAINLY
WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BY THE TIME IT
REACHES ENC.
OVERALL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL 12Z MODELS ARE
SHOWING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH WITH SOME
HIRES MODELS SHOWING UP TO A HALF INCH. HIGHEST AMOUNT STILL
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LATEST NBM PROBS
SHOWING GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES, AND
NORTH OF 80 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH FAIR WEATHER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND EVEN BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
IN THE NEAR TERM, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH BREEZY SW
WINDS. LLWS CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY REACHING KPGV AND
KISO EARLY THIS EVENING, AND A COUPLE HOURS LATER REACHING KEWN
AND KOAJ. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 1500-2500 FT EARLY TONIGHT, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL DIP TO 1000-1500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH FURTHER
REDUCTIONS IN CEILING HEIGHT (AND IFR CONDITIONS) POSSIBLE BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES INTO
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OUT OF THE NE AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
MARINE
SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AROUND 15-20 KT AND
SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG
NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST CAA
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WHEN GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10+ FT
PEAKING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MARINE HEADLINES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
APART FROM MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND.
UPGRADES TO GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/27 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 88/1929 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 77/1989 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 88/1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-150.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ135-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...SK/MS
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