319
FXUS62 KMHX 271809
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING
ENC TODAY.
2) FRONT BRINGS A RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT SEVERE RISK
IS LOW.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
4) INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF ENC.
MARINE: SCA HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE WATERS AND PAMLICO
SOUND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SCA TO GALE FORCE WINDS
PROBABLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG BUT SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE CAROLINAS TODAY AS DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DIGS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE MARCH (UP TO 1-2 SIGMA), WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. THIS WILL
THREATEN A FEW RECORD HIGHS - SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE NEXT
APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO, FOCUSED MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 70. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK
MEAGER WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG MLCAPE AND RATHER STUBBORN
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS
TO BE VERY LOW (LESS THAN 2%). FURTHER INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IS THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO FALL ON THE COOLER, MORE STABLE
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR DOES SUGGEST A RISK OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS IS
JUXTAPOSED WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF UNINHIBITED CAPE MAINLY
WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY FALL APART BY THE TIME IT
REACHES ENC.
OVERALL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SEVERAL 12Z MODELS ARE
SHOWING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER INCH WITH SOME
HIRES MODELS SHOWING UP TO A HALF INCH. HIGHEST AMOUNT STILL
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LATEST NBM PROBS
SHOWING GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES, AND
NORTH OF 80 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
KEY MESSAGE 4...A DEEP, AND DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS,
LEADING TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF
OF ENC. IN COORDINATION WITH THE NCFS, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT (IFD) WILL BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY TO COVER THE THIS
RISK. ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS, THE COOL AND MORE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER, AND THE IFD
WILL NOT INCLUDE THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. OF NOTE, PORTIONS OF THE
IFD AREA COULD COME CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS (IE. RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA). THIS MAY ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE
WINDS END UP HIGHER AND/OR IF THE RH ENDS UP LOWER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 18Z/2PM, A COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, GUSTY WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE ONGOING ACROSS ENC, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS ENC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEE BELOW FOR THE EXPECTED
TIMEFRAME FOR WHEN THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EACH TAF SITE.
PGV: 21-23Z
ISO: 23-01Z
EWN: 00-02Z
OAJ: 01-03Z
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHRA AND SUB-VFR CIGS. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (>80% CHANCE)
OF MVFR CIGS AND A MODERATE (40-60% CHANCE) OF IFR CIGS. FOR
NOW, THEN, I WENT WITH A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP WITH SCT IFR-
LEVEL CLOUDS. REDUCTIONS TO VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT
THE SETUP DOESN'T APPEAR TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS (IE.
ONLY IN THE 4-6SM RANGE). GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A SHARP WINDSHIFT EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT, ITSELF. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT WILL BE COMMON FROM
THIS EVENING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SEABREEZE, WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS.
MARINE
SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AROUND 15-20 KT AND
SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STRONG
NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST CAA
WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WHEN GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10+ FT
PEAKING DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MARINE HEADLINES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
APART FROM MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND.
UPGRADES TO GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY.
MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 03/27 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 86/2020 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 77/2017 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 88/1929 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 77/1989 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 88/1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 87/2020 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-152-
154-156-158.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...SK/MS
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...SK/MS
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