218
FXUS62 KMHX 280658
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
258 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT EXTENDED TO BEAUFORT AND PAMLICO
COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER THREAT BEHIND PASSING COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
2) INCREASED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF ENC.
3) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE: GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER AREA WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY.
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG COLD FRONT IS STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY
OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THIS HOUR WITH A DECAYING BAND OF
ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS SEEN
ON RADAR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH, AND UP TO AN EXTRA TENTH IS
PROBABLE BEFORE LIFT AND MOISTURE MOVE OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A DEEP, AND DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, AND RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30%
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT AT TIMES, LEADING TO AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF ENC.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (IFD) HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
BEAUFORT AND PAMLICO COUNTIES THIS MORNING, REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNSET. ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS, THE COOL AND MORE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AN EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS OF ENC. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR FROST ARE NOW ABOVE 80% FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS, BUT FREEZE PROBABILITIES ARE STILL AROUND
20%. THIS IS LIKELY AN UNDERESTIMATION, AS NBM HAS HISTORICALLY
HAD TOO WARM OF LOWS IN RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIMES. BECAUSE OF
THIS, A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOST OF THE COAST SEEING IFR CEILINGS OF 700-900 FT, AND FARTHER
INLAND SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILINGS OF 1000-1400 FT. AS WE GO
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY
LOWER, AND A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT
ALL THE TAF SITES BEFORE DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AROUND SUNRISE, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NE WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH TODAY, AND BECOME STRONGER, GUSTING 30-35 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON UNDER PEAK MIXING, BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION.
MARINE
STRONG CAA IS INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING, WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NE WINDS AROUND 20
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS RISING TO 6-7 FEET ALREADY NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT OFFSHORE, AND MORE SCATTER-SHOT
GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6-10 FT TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUN
AFTERNOON, BUT BY SUN MORNING FOR SOUNDSIDE WATERS AND RIVERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO MARINE HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...MS/CEB
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