947
FXUS62 KMHX 281713
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
113 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR MOST INLAND COUNTIES TOMORROW MORNING.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT EXTENDED TO BEAUFORT AND PAMLICO
COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF ENC.
2) RISK OF FROST RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
MARINE: GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER AREA WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY.
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A DEEP, AND DRY, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, AND RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30%
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT AT TIMES, LEADING TO AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF ENC. INCREASED FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT (IFD) REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNSET. ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS, THE COOL AND MORE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC SHOULD LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSERTS ITSELF OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. WITH CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR AN EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS OF ENC. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR FROST ARE NOW
ABOVE 80% FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, BUT FREEZE PROBABILITIES ARE
STILL AROUND 20%. THIS IS LIKELY AN UNDERESTIMATION, AS NBM HAS
HISTORICALLY HAD TOO WARM OF LOWS IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIMES. BECAUSE OF THIS, A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOST INLAND COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CIGS AROUND 3-4K FT WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LEAVING MOSTLY CLR SKIES BY THIS
EVENING. CLR SKIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LAST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. BY LATE- MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE, BUT CIGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. GUSTS
OF 20-35KT WILL BE COMMON FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS, THEN WINDS
WILL TREND MUCH LIGHTER FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO VIS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR BR/MIFG. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, AND THIS
MAY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
STRONG CAA IS INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING, WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOWING NE WINDS AROUND 20
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS RISING TO 6-7 FEET ALREADY NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS. HIGHEST WINDS LIKELY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 35-40 KT OFFSHORE, AND MORE SCATTER-SHOT
GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6-10 FT TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUN
AFTERNOON, BUT BY SUN MORNING FOR SOUNDSIDE WATERS AND RIVERS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO MARINE HEADLINES.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230-231.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ136-
137.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-154-156-
158.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS/CEB
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