341
FXUS62 KMHX 291349
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
949 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR EASTERN
NC.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
MARINE: ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR INTERIOR
AREAS THAT GET TO LESS THAN 35% RH, DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS, AS
FUELS ARE VERY DRY DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY'S WINDY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
ENC TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RUNNING
INTO NOTABLE RIDGING ALOFT, WHICH MAKES ITS EVOLUTION LESS
CERTAIN. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WEAKENING/LOSING SUPPORT AS THEY REACH THE CAROLINAS.
CONSEQUENTLY, WHERE MODELS TEND TO DIFFER IS WHETHER OR NOT
FRONTS IN THIS PATTERN WILL STALL OVER THE AREA, OR LIFT QUICKLY
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING
HAS SHIFTED QUITE NOTABLY TOWARDS A SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT
BRIEFLY STALLS OVER ENC MIDWEEK, THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH FRIDAY.
THIS WOULD FAVOR WARMER TEMPS AND BEST RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SCENARIO WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS OVER ENC FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME,
POTENTIALLY WELL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO FAVORS AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM MID-WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. WITH A STRONG CAD IN PLACE, THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO POSSIBLY 40S. THIS WOULD
BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNCOMMON FOR EARLY APRIL. CURRENTLY, ROUGHLY
15-20% OF TOTAL ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS, SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST, AND POTENTIALLY
AS FAR INLAND AS THE US 17 CORRIDOR, BUT THIS SHOULDN'T EFFECT
AVIATION AS CLOUD BASES REMAIN 3500-5000 FT. SOME COASTAL
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE TAF SITES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER, WITH THE MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE, THERE
COULD BE EARLY MORNING AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. MID TO LATE WEEK, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, AND
THIS MAY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
REGIONAL CONDITIONS SHOW DIMINISHING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF
10-15 KTS OVER SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS, WHILE OVER THE GULF
STREAM WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE STILL IN PLACE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
HOVERING AT AROUND 6 FEET OVER CENTRAL WATERS, BUT STEADILY
FALLING ELSEWHERE BELOW 5 FEET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THEN OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
WINDS VEERING EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING, BUT
AT NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KT. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE,
FALLING BELOW 6 FEET BEFORE SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF THE WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND IT. EVENTUALLY, THE GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN BY EARLY TO MID WEEK, WHICH MAY PROVIDE
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR 25KT WINDS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...SGK
MARINE...MS
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