025
FXUS62 KMHX 291737
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
137 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED NOTABLY DRIER AND WARMER MID TO LATE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF ENC TODAY,
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING AGAIN ON MONDAY
2) GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER AND NOT AS UNSETTLED MID TO LATE
WEEK
MARINE: ELEVATED SEAS TO LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE.
DESPITE A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, IT MAY TAKE AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY TO GET THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS ENC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PARTS OF LENOIR, GREENE, PITT, AND MARTIN COUNTIES MAY SEE RH
DROP BELOW 40% DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING ON MONDAY. IT'S THIS
AREA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (IFD) IS
BEING CONSIDERED. BEYOND MONDAY, SURFACE AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE, WITH INCREASING RH AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD LOWER FIRE CONCERNS BEYOND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
ENC. THE ONE HOLDOUT IS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE WHICH STILL
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BRIEFLY MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH WITH A DAY, OR TWO, OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. ADDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DRIER SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, BLENDED
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT,
OR BELOW, 30% EACH DAY DURING THIS TIME. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO TRENDED ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE, THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TODAY
TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL HELP TO DRAW MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO
THE AREA, AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 4-5K FT. DESPITE THE MOISTURE RETURN,
THE RISK OF IMPACTFUL FG APPEARS LOW. IF ANYTHING, THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF SHALLOW FG (MIFG) OR BR.
OUTLOOK: IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS
IN THE CARDS FOR ENC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE, AND APPRECIABLE LIFT REMAINING OFF
TO THE NW AND N OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC, PLUS INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE A DAILY ROUND OF A SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUD LAYER, WITH REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BR/MIFG DEVELOPS, BUT THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ANY ONE DAY OR NIGHT THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OVER ANOTHER REGARDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
BOATING CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL TODAY
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5-15KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MEANWHILE, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AT THIS TIME, AND ARE IN
THE 4-6FT RANGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY, THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME, BUT REMAIN MODEST (10-15KT).
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS SHOULD LAY DOWN BELOW 6FT BY THIS
EVENING. A SEAS-DRIVEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET UNTIL THEN. ON MONDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 10-15KT AND SEAS OF 2-4FT WILL BE COMMON.
OUTLOOK: A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING
UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT
THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. WHILE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT WILL
GET THIS FAR SOUTH, IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
20-25KT WINDS AND 4-5FT SEAS AT TIMES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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