003
FXUS62 KMHX 300035
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
835 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED NOTABLY DRIER AND WARMER MID TO LATE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR ENC
COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY.
2) GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER AND NOT AS UNSETTLED MID TO LATE
WEEK
MARINE: EXPIRED REMAINING SCA'S FOR HIGH SEAS, AS SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FEET ALL AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE.
DESPITE A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, IT MAY TAKE AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY TO GET THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS ENC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PARTS OF LENOIR, GREENE, PITT, AND MARTIN COUNTIES MAY SEE RH
DROP BELOW 40% DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING ON MONDAY. IT'S THIS
AREA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (IFD) IS
ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEYOND MONDAY, SURFACE AND
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE, WITH
INCREASING RH AS WELL. THIS SHOULD LOWER FIRE CONCERNS BEYOND
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
ENC. THE ONE HOLDOUT IS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE WHICH STILL
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BRIEFLY MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH WITH A DAY, OR TWO, OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. ADDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DRIER SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, BLENDED
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT,
OR BELOW, 30% EACH DAY DURING THIS TIME. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO TRENDED ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH JUST SOME SCT MID RANGE VFR (7K FT). AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TODAY TO SOUTH
OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP TO DRAW MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE
AREA. DESPITE THE MOISTURE RETURN, THE RISK OF IMPACTFUL FG
APPEARS LOW. IF ANYTHING, THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SHALLOW FG
(MIFG) OR BR.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): IT APPEARS THAT A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE CARDS FOR ENC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE, AND
APPRECIABLE LIFT REMAINING OFF TO THE NW AND N OF THE AREA.
GIVEN THE MOIST, SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC, PLUS
INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THERE WILL BE A DAILY ROUND OF A SCT TO BKN CUMULUS CLOUD LAYER,
WITH REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE BR/MIFG DEVELOPS, BUT THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY ONE
DAY OR NIGHT THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING A BETTER CHANCE OVER
ANOTHER REGARDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
BOATING CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL TODAY
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5-15KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY, THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME, BUT REMAIN MODEST (10-15KT).
ON MONDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT AND SEAS OF 2-4FT WILL
BE COMMON.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH
FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TUESDAY- THURSDAY. WHILE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAT THIS FRONT WILL GET THIS FAR SOUTH, IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR 20-25KT WINDS AND 4-5FT SEAS AT TIMES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...RM
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