276
FXUS62 KMHX 300508
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
108 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED NOTABLY DRIER AND WARMER MID TO LATE
WEEK.
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR ENC
COASTAL PLAINS MONDAY.
2) GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER AND NOT AS UNSETTLED MID TO LATE
WEEK
MARINE: EXPIRED REMAINING SCA'S FOR HIGH SEAS, AS SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW 6 FEET ALL AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE.
DESPITE A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, IT MAY TAKE AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY TO GET THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS ENC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
PARTS OF LENOIR, GREENE, PITT, AND MARTIN COUNTIES MAY SEE RH
DROP BELOW 40% DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING ON MONDAY. IT'S THIS
AREA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (IFD) IS
ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEYOND MONDAY, SURFACE AND
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE, WITH
INCREASING RH AS WELL. THIS SHOULD LOWER FIRE CONCERNS BEYOND
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
ENC. THE ONE HOLDOUT IS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE WHICH STILL
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO BRIEFLY MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH WITH A DAY, OR TWO, OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. ADDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DRIER SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, BLENDED
GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT,
OR BELOW, 30% EACH DAY DURING THIS TIME. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO TRENDED ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
ACROSS ENC THROUGH MON EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT S-SE'RLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS ENC,
BUT DON'T EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE HREF/NBM SHOWING A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE FOR
VISIBILITIES BELOW 5 MILES. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A FOG THREAT
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS ENC, CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED AND PATCHY
GROUND FOG (MIFG) OR BR AT THE TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS NEAR RIVERS
(EWN/PGV). THOUGH, REGARDLESS OF GROUND FOG FORMATION, THIS WILL NOT
IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AND LOW PROBABILITY
NATURE OF THIS THREAT, HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG AT TAF SITES
ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS WE GET INTO MON AFTERNOON A DIURNAL
CU FIELD SETS UP ACROSS ENC WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 4-5
KFT SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THIS DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL
THEN DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH MO CLEAR SKIES FORECAST MON
NIGHT. LIGHT S'RLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT
5-10 KTS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS
MON AFTERNOON WITH WINDS THEN BECOMING LIGHT MON NIGHT. MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATE MON
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES BUT WITH HREF PROBS
ONLY AROUND 10-30% OF SEEING VIS DROP BELOW 5 MILES WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY FOG THREAT ON THIS TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE COMING TAF CYCLES.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONGER
TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE KEEPING S'RLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT REMAINS OFF TO THE NW AND
W OF ENC INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MOIST, S'RLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC, PLUS INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE A DAILY ROUND OF A SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUD LAYER, WITH REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BR/MIFG DEVELOPS, BUT THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ANY ONE DAY OR NIGHT THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OVER ANOTHER REGARDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
BOATING CONDITIONS HAVE TRENDED MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL TODAY
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5-15KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY, THE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME, BUT REMAIN MODEST (10-15KT).
ON MONDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT AND SEAS OF 2-4FT WILL
BE COMMON.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH
FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TUESDAY- THURSDAY. WHILE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAT THIS FRONT WILL GET THIS FAR SOUTH, IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR 20-25KT WINDS AND 4-5FT SEAS AT TIMES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD
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