319
FXUS62 KMHX 301040
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
ENC COASTAL PLAINS TODAY.
2) GUIDANCE TRENDING WARMER AND NOT AS UNSETTLED MID TO LATE
WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE.
DESPITE A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING, IT MAY TAKE AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY TO GET THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MORE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS ENC. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 40%
DURING PEAK HEATING/MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S THIS AREA WHERE
AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT (IFD) CONTINUES.
BEYOND TODAY, SURFACE AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD
STEADILY INCREASE, WITH INCREASING RH AS WELL. THIS SHOULD LOWER
FIRE CONCERNS BEYOND TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRENDED DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH EASTERN
CAROLINA. IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WHICH IS QUITE THE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. THOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN THE PATTERN. THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS
WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ADDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE
DRIER SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, BLENDED GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT, OR BELOW, 30% EACH DAY DURING THIS
TIME. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
ACROSS ENC THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW OFFSHORE
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT S-SE'RLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS WE GET INTO MON AFTERNOON
A DIURNAL CU FIELD SETS UP ACROSS ENC WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
AROUND 4-5 KFT SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THIS DIURNAL CU
FIELD WILL THEN DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH MO CLEAR SKIES
FORECAST MON NIGHT. LIGHT S'RLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KTS. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT FALLING
BELOW 5 KTS. MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SOME PATCHY
FOG FORMATION LATE MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
CONTINUES, BUT WITH HREF PROBS ONLY AROUND 10-30% OF SEEING VIS
DROP BELOW 5 MILES WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG THREAT ON THIS TAF
ISSUANCE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE COMING
TAF CYCLES.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONGER
TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE KEEPING S'RLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT REMAINS OFF TO THE NW AND
W OF ENC INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MOIST, S'RLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC, PLUS INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE A DAILY ROUND OF A SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUD LAYER, WITH REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BR/MIFG DEVELOPS, BUT THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ANY ONE DAY OR NIGHT THAT STANDS OUT AS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE OVER ANOTHER REGARDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SE-S WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS BECOME MORE SW
OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GULF
STREAM WATERS.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH
FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THIS COMING WEEK. A FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW TUESDAY-THURSDAY. WHILE IT NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY
THAT THIS FRONT WILL GET THIS FAR SOUTH, IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR 15-25KT WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS AT TIMES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD
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