743
FXUS62 KMHX 302011
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
411 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY, AND AGAIN TOMORROW (TUE).
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR ENC COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. NCFS HAS REQUESTED ANOTHER
IFD STATEMENT OVER THE SAME AREA TOMORROW. SEE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST (FWF) FOR MORE DETAILS.
2) FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WORK-WEEK WITH THE LATE WEEK FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. DESPITE A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW IN PLACE
BRINGING MINRHS LEVELS ABOVE USUAL IFD CRITERIA, THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND FUEL DRYNESS, AND STRENGTHENING AFTERNOON WINDS,
ANOTHER IFD WILL BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW (TUE) OVER THE SAME
AREAS AS TODAY (INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES, DUPLIN CO NWARD THROUGH
MARTIN CO.) AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS AND THE NCFS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOWCASE A DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK,
KEEPING THE OFFSHORE HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE, KEEPING ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH, BUT NOT REACH, ENC, WELL TO THE N OF THE FA. NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FA LATE SUN. THOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN THE PATTERN, THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN EXPLICIT FORECAST. THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS WARMER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ADDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DRIER
SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, NBM KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRI. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING
ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH TUESDAY. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY): MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE
LONGER TERM AVIATION FORECAST AS A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE KEEPING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT REMAINS OFF TO THE NW AND W OF ENC
INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC,
PLUS INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THERE WILL BE A DAILY ROUND OF A SCT TO BKN CUMULUS CLOUD LAYER.
THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT REDUCED VIS IN
BR/MIFG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SSWERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
25KT. BUOYS SHOW 3-5FT SEAS AT 8-9SEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK, KEEPING S-SWERLY BREEZE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS, SIMILAR TO TODAY, WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERMAL GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH PEAK HEATING.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH
FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THIS COMING WEEK. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW THURSDAY, BUT THE HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE, KEEPING THE FRONT WELL TO THE N OF AREA WATERS. EXPECT 15-25KT
WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, LAY
DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL THE THERMAL
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GULFSTREAM WATERS
AND FAR EERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25KT, BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO WARRANT SCA
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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