868
FXUS62 KMHX 310442
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1242 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR ENC COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST (FWF) FOR MORE DETAILS.
2) FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE
WORK-WEEK WITH THE LATE WEEK FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST OR THE
ONGOING BURN BAN, AS NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. DESPITE MOISTENING RETURN FLOW WHICH HAS
BROUGHT MINRHS LEVELS ABOVE USUAL IFD CRITERIA, GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, FUEL DRYNESS, AND STRENGTHENING
AFTERNOON WINDS, ANOTHER IFD HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY (INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES, DUPLIN CO
NWARD THROUGH MARTIN CO.) AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS AND
THE NCFS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOWCASE A DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK,
KEEPING THE OFFSHORE HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE, KEEPING ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH, BUT NOT REACH, ENC, WELL TO THE N OF THE FA. NEXT
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM A STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE FA LATE SUN. THOUGH ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN THE PATTERN, THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN EXPLICIT FORECAST. THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS WARMER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ADDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DRIER
SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, NBM KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE ALL THE WAY
THROUGH FRI. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ENC REMAINS IN A RATHER STAGNANT WX PATTERN
OVERALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WHILE WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN S'RLY
AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS
LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT
20-25 KTS FOR MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NOTED ALONG
THE OBX. DIURNAL CU ALSO DEVELOPS LATE MORNING AND PUSHES INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 4-5 KFT KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ONCE AGAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND
WINDS EASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS FOR THE MOST PART AFTER SUNSET.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE OBX WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE NOTED.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OFFSHORE. THIS
KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT REMAINS OFF TO THE NW AND W OF ENC INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC, PLUS
INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR A SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU FIELD.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WED/THURS/FRI CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY
SEABREEZE SHOWER OR STORM AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
LOCATION AND OCCURRENCE RIGHT NOW. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SSWERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
25KT. BUOYS SHOW 3-5FT SEAS AT 8-9SEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK, KEEPING S-SWERLY BREEZE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS, SIMILAR TO TODAY, WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERMAL GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH PEAK HEATING.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH
FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THIS COMING WEEK. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW THURSDAY, BUT THE HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE, KEEPING THE FRONT WELL TO THE N OF AREA WATERS. EXPECT 15-25KT
WINDS AND 4-5 FT SEAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, LAY
DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL THE THERMAL
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GULFSTREAM WATERS
AND FAR EERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS
UP TO 25KT, BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO WARRANT SCA
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD
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