520
FXUS62 KMHX 310540
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR ENC COASTAL PLAINS TODAY. SEE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST (FWF) FOR MORE DETAILS.
2) MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NO CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO THE FORECAST OR THE
ONGOING BURN BAN, AS NCFS BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT STATEWIDE
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. DESPITE MOISTENING RETURN FLOW WHICH HAS
BROUGHT MINRHS LEVELS ABOVE USUAL IFD CRITERIA, GIVEN THE
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DRY FUELS, AND STRENGTHENING
AFTERNOON WINDS, IFD CONTINUES FOR THE SAME AREAS AS YESTERDAY
(INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES, DUPLIN CO NWARD THROUGH MARTIN CO.)
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS AND THE NCFS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOWCASE A DECIDEDLY DRIER MID TO LATE WEEK,
KEEPING THE OFFSHORE HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE, KEEPING ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH, BUT NOT REACH, ENC, WELL TO THE N OF THE FA. THOUGH
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN THE
PATTERN, THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EXPLICIT FORECAST.
THIS TREND ALSO FAVORS WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC. ADDING
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE DRIER SCENARIO IS CLIMATOLOGICAL
GUIDANCE (CFS), WHICH SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, NBM
KEEPS POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRI. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND 70S
FOR THE BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY,
LIKELY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH ISO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
N-NE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, ENC REMAINS IN A RATHER STAGNANT WX PATTERN
OVERALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WHILE WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN S'RLY
AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS
LATE TUE MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT
20-25 KTS FOR MOST AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NOTED ALONG
THE OBX. DIURNAL CU ALSO DEVELOPS LATE MORNING AND PUSHES INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 4-5 KFT KEEPING
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SKIES ONCE AGAIN CLEAR TONIGHT AND
WINDS EASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KTS FOR THE MOST PART AFTER SUNSET.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE OBX WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE NOTED.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OFFSHORE. THIS
KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANY
SIGNIFICANT LIFT REMAINS OFF TO THE NW AND W OF ENC INTO THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC, PLUS
INCREASING WARMTH AND WEAK INSTABILITY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR A SCT TO BKN DIURNAL CU FIELD.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WED/THURS/FRI CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY
SEABREEZE SHOWER OR STORM AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
LOCATION AND OCCURRENCE RIGHT NOW. THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT REDUCED VIS IN BR/MIFG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK, KEEPING
LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SWERLY WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS, SIMILAR TO YDAY, WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMAL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH PEAK HEATING. A
FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO SHORT DURATION FOR
SCA AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE, WITH
FRONTS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP A
MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW THURSDAY,
BUT THE HIGH IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE, KEEPING THE
FRONT WELL TO THE N OF AREA WATERS. EXPECT 15-25KT WINDS AND 4-5
FT SEAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL THE THERMAL GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. GULF STREAM WATERS AND FAR
EERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND MOST LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS UP TO
25KT, BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE AT
THIS TIME.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...CQD
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