299
FXUS62 KMHX 170549
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
149 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...A DRY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURING SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
2) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN
COMING SUNDAY.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
NOTABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN
BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA, WITH
ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN
NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF
LATE IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY
ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS OF RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF DEEP UPDRAFTS CAN FORM. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY CRESTED THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN BAND OF SHRA. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OVERNIGHT, THEN
MOVE ACROSS ENC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, A SCT TO BKN CLOUD LAYER AROUND 7K FT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. THIS FRONT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND
IT APPEARS THAT DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL FURTHER
LIMIT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE CHANCE OF
SHRA OR TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT APPEARS VERY LOW (<10%
CHANCE). IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE
17-23Z TIMEFRAME AND MAINLY CONFINED ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE
SEABREEZE, AND AWAY FROM ANY OF THE TAF SITES. A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BEHIND
THE FRONT, SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW, THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS JUST YET.
OUTLOOK: A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE
AND ADVECT INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISK
OF SUB- VFR CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ENC
BETWEEN 13Z-18Z ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-
VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. DURING THIS TIME, WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND
CAPE LOOKOUT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES. A PERIOD OF FAIR WINDS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOME OF THE INLAND WATERS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SW AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND INCREASE TO S 10-20
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 FT UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN RESPONSE,
PEAKING LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AS WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/17 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1972 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 91/1972 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/19 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 96/1917 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ152-
154-156.
DISCUSSION...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...SGK
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