446
FXUS62 KMHX 171709
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
109 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...A DRY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURING SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
2) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN
COMING SUNDAY.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
NOTABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN
BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA, WITH
ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN
NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF
LATE IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY
ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS OF RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF DEEP UPDRAFTS CAN FORM. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED THE
EWN/OAJ TERMINALS AND IS DENOTED BY A THIN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND 10 KFT, ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES,
AND A SHIFT IN WINDS WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE OFF THE COAST
BY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FANFARE, SO CONTINUE
TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE TAF SITES BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NOBX TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECTING A PRIMARILY VFR TAF THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5-10 KT
W TO NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER FURTHER BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. WITH SKIES ALSO BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
AS WELL, THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE AT SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL TAF SITES AND POINTS
EAST. EXPECT ANY GROUND FOG TO BE PATCHY AT BEST AND RESULT IN
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON OPERATIONS. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS TREND AND KEPT SOME MIFG AT 6SM IN AT THE EWN/OAJ
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A
PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND ADVECT INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISK OF SUB- VFR CIGS. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ENC BETWEEN 13Z-18Z ON SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS
EXPECTED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. DURING THIS
TIME, WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS
RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA.
MARINE
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30KT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
EASES. A PERIOD OF FAIR WINDS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOME
OF THE INLAND WATERS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SW AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KT THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING, AND INCREASE TO S 10-20
KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3-5 FT UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT IN RESPONSE,
PEAKING LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AS WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/17 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1972 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 91/1972 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/19 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 96/1917 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ154-
156-158.
DISCUSSION...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...SGK
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