853
FXUS62 KMHX 172335
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
735 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
2) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN
COMING SUNDAY.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
NOTABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN
BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA, WITH
ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN
NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF
LATE IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY
ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS OF RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF DEEP UPDRAFTS CAN FORM. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECT WINDS TO GAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS THEY PICK UP
TO 5-10 KTS. NO FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING
AT SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS,
PROBABLY IN THE FORM OF SEA FOG IN THE VICINITY OF FFA AND MQI.
OTHERWISE SOME CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT SHOULD NOT THREATEN MVFR LEVELS UNTIL
SUNDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
OUTLOOK: A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE
AND ADVECT INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISK
OF SUB- VFR CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ENC
BETWEEN 13Z-18Z ON SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-
VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. DURING THIS TIME, WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS ARE SWERLY AT 5-15
KT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO THE NORTH.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BY 3-5 FT THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8 FT IN RESPONSE,
PEAKING LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AS WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/17 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1972 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 91/1972 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/19 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 96/1917 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SGK/OJC
AVIATION...RTE/RCF
MARINE...OJC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page