665
FXUS62 KMHX 180532
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
132 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
2) SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN
COMING SUNDAY.
3) COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW THANKS TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH
NOTABLY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY INLAND, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG
THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SINCE MARCH 1
RUNNING ABOUT 10-50% OF NORMAL. LOCALLY HERE IN ENC, THIS
EQUATES TO RAINFALL TOTALS RUNNING ABOUT 2-4" BELOW NORMAL OVER
THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. ALMOST ALL OF ENC REMAINS IN SEVERE
DROUGHT (D2), WITH A SMALL PART OF MARTIN COUNTY IN EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3). UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENT RIDGING
ALOFT WILL ONLY ACT TO EXACERBATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THE
ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL COMING ON SUNDAY, WHICH ONLY LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN UNTIL A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OCCURS. INCREASING
WINDS AHEAD OF, AND BEHIND, THIS WEEKEND'S COLD FRONT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY FIRE STARTS. A STATEWIDE BURN
BANS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH CAROLINA, WITH
ADDITIONAL FIRE RESTRICTIONS AT ALL FOUR NATIONAL FORESTS IN
NC. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM THE FOREST SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT RIDGING OF
LATE IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BREAK DOWN LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY
ABOUT 1/4" OR LESS OF RAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
MODEST, DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, IF DEEP UPDRAFTS CAN FORM. WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION, WITH LOCAL HIGHS DROPPING BACK DOWN CLOSER TO WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S,
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S TO START THE NEW WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (AND
THUNDERSTORMS) MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR, WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, BUT AT FIRST THESE
WILL BE MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. EVENTUALLY, SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ENC BETWEEN SUNDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF SHRA, TSRA, AND SUB-VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS IS EXPECTED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. DURING THIS TIME, WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS ARE SWERLY AT 5-15
KT SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO THE NORTH.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 10-20 KT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BY 3-5 FT THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, AND THEN AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE
FORCE GUSTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-8 FT IN RESPONSE,
PEAKING LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AS WELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/17 (FRIDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1976 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 83/2012 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1972 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 91/1972 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/2006 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/18 (SATURDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 90/2002 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 82/1995 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 93/2002 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 85/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 92/2002 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 92/1976 (NCA ASOS)
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/19 (SUNDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 91/1985 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 81/1985 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 92/1985 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 82/1976 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 96/1917 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 91/1985 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ152-154.
DISCUSSION...RJ
AVIATION...RTE/SGK
MARINE...RJ
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